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美国研究报告(2014)

书 名: 美国研究报告(2014)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON RESEARCH OF U.S.A (2014)
作 者:  黄平 郑秉文
I S B N: 978-7-5097-6182-3
丛 书 名: 美国蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  政治发展 研究报告 美国
出版日期: 2014-07-01

中文摘要

2013年是奥巴马第二任期的开启之年,尽管受到内外诸多因素和事件的牵制,奥巴马政府仍致力于完善和强化美国在亚太地区的战略性介入。在奥巴马政府持续强化亚太再平衡战略的压力下,中国周边地区安全议题愈益复杂,这也考验着中美两国建构新型大国关系过程中互相尊重的承诺与分歧管控的能力。在这样的背景下,第三方因素在中美关系中的战略地位日益凸显。

就中日关系而言,日本内政外交的深刻变化对美日同盟影响显著但显然并未改变亚太安全基石的基本定位,中日关系也成为中美持续稳步深入互动的一块短板。就朝核问题而言,中美双方逐步形成的“半岛无核化”共识正面临新的变数。就东南亚事务而言,美国在各议题上持续推进的实质性进展,对中国的影响力构成了严峻挑战。就南海问题而言,美菲关系特别是安全防御关系持续升温,虽然《美菲共同防御条约》使美国面临道义困境,但也增加了中国处理南海事务的复杂性。在强化亚太战略之余,美国也不得不妥善应对中东事务,以保持全球战略的平衡与张力。伊朗选举之后,奥巴马政府抓住时机,对谈判目标加以调整,达成了过渡协议,为和平解决伊核问题营造了相对乐观的前景。

在高调推进对外战略的同时,奥巴马政府仍须面对美国国内事务方面的种种挑战。一方面,在经济议题上,虽然有迹象表明,美国经济已温和增长,在失业率、政府预算、楼市、公司盈利、去杠杆化和国际贸易等关键指标方面均有积极表现,但受到国内政治斗争、国际经济情势变迁、劳动参与率降低及债务累计等消极因素的制约,影响经济稳定增长的阴影并未完全消除。另一方面,在政治与公共政策方面,奥巴马第二任期伊始就面临众多挑战。2013年4月的波士顿爆炸案令人们再度对奥巴马所谓反恐战争的“终结”陷入深深的疑虑之中。10月的政府关门危机凸显了美国政府两党极化的不可调和性,财政预算状况限制了美国军事和社会福利、教育等重要事宜的开支,直接影响着国家内外政策。持续发酵的“斯诺登事件”则直接损害了美国的国际形象和盟友关系。奥巴马上台之后力推的“气候行动”也只能在制度性障碍下艰难展开。

2014年进入中期选举周期后,美国政治与政府决策可能完全受限于“选举时间”,而选后的两年,奥巴马可能面对强分立政府,其内外政策议程更难顺利推进。这些因素将如何影响中美关系,则是需要我们进一步关注的关键所在。

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