中国的低生育水平与被忽略的人口风险
| 书 名： |
中国的低生育水平与被忽略的人口风险 |
| 英 文 名： |
China’s Low Fertility Level and the Neglected Population Risk
|
| 作 者： |
郭志刚 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5097-3110-9 |
| 丛 书 名： |
北大社会学·教授自选集系列
订阅
|
| 关 键 词： |
人口 问题 中国 文集 |
| 出版日期： |
2012-04-01 |
中文摘要
本书收集了郭志刚近十几年中对中国生育率及有关问题的30篇学术论文，系统反映了他在中国人口发展进入低生育率阶段以来学术思想的发展脉络。本书包括他追踪借鉴国际人口学最新理论和方法，对生育率指标、方法与人口预测模型的探讨和改进，以及对中国人口调查数据的一系列应用分析的研究结果。
2004年，郭志刚率先提出中国时下的生育率很可能远低于当时的权威估计。郭志刚还认为，多年来人口统计陷入一个怪圈，即严重高估实际生育水平，进而导致严重低估人口老龄化的风险。这事关人口发展战略决策和未来中国长期持续发展，是中国人口研究中亟待解决的重大问题。在此之后，他认真地用新数据和新方法对自己的观点进行多角度检验，并努力从多方面探索研究了中国生育转变过程的复杂性。
他还针对时下人口宣传中的一系列似是而非的思想认识问题及其在生育率、老龄化和人口发展战略学术研究中存在的错误和缺陷进行了旗帜鲜明的学术批评。尽管他的学术观点提出后并未很快被人们理解和接受，却不断得到实际人口数据的验证，其中也包括第六次全国人口普查主要数据的印证，因而来自学术界和社会方面的认同越来越多。
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