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2015年中国经济前景分析

书 名: 2015年中国经济前景分析
英 文 名: ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY (2015)
作 者:  李扬 李平 李雪松 张平
I S B N: 978-7-5097-7418-2
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号 订阅
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济预测 经济发展趋势 研究报告 2015
出版日期: 2015-05-01

中文摘要

2014年,在发达经济体经济运行分化加剧,发展中经济体增长放缓,世界经济复苏依旧艰难曲折的大环境下,我国经济增长总体平稳,但下行压力持续加大,全年国内生产总值增长7.4%。2015年,在全球经济总体保持温和增长的态势下,发达经济体货币政策分化,美联储加息预期增强,预计2015年中国经济增长7.0%左右。总体来看,中国经济全面进入完成“十二五”规划目标的收官之年,继续朝着宏观调控预期方向发展。

面对潜在经济增长率换挡下移,中国经济发展逐步进入“新常态”。2015年我国重点实施“一带一路”、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大战略,建设发展上海等自贸区,将进一步扩大对外开放,促进我国经济稳定增长。2015年农业发展应坚守耕地保护红线,加快基本农田水利等农业基础设施建设,稳步提高粮食生产能力,统筹国际国内两个市场、两种资源,在更大尺度上协调国内农产品供需平衡。2015年全年规模以上工业增加值将增长8.2%左右,工业领域的供给过剩依然突出,国内能源需求已基本达到峰值,未来需求趋于稳定,必须抓住这一有利时机调整能源结构,推动能源生产、消费与技术革命。2015年我国服务业增长速度有望保持在7.8%,服务业成为新常态下我国经济增长的新动力。

展望2015年,政府需要采取一系列政策调控措施,更加关注就业市场,提高劳动收入,健全工资合理增长机制,同时要改革资本市场,畅通资本收益转化为居民财产性收入的渠道。在财政政策方面,继续强化经济的财政政策,增加基础设施投资,推进财税体制改革,加大对中小企业的减税政策力度。进一步加快利率市场化改革进程,形成规范和完善的市场利率体系,适时降息降准,增加市场活力,有效降低社会融资成本,缓解企业“融资难、融资贵”问题。货币政策关注长期金融稳定,引导利率走势和利率结构。

中国经济社会发展基本面长期趋好,有望保持大体平稳、小幅上升的运行态势。政府应采取多项积极措施使经济增长能够顺利走出本轮经济增长周期波动的谷底,以使我国经济朝着“稳中向好”的趋势发展。

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CommonID:DIR_14084009,ID:13555402,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160106,name:B.1 中国经济形势分析与预测,ShortName:null,SubName:——2015年春季报告,EnTitle:B.1 Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:(The Spring Report,2015),Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:2014年在发达经济体经济运行分化加剧,发展中经济体增长放缓,世界经济复苏依旧艰难曲折的大环境下,我国经济增长总体平稳,但下行压力持续加大;CPI低位运行,但PPI通缩加剧;就业形势总体稳定,但结构性矛盾突出;国际收支基本平衡,但跨境资本双向波动显著。

当前,尽管全球经济总体保持温和增长态势,但复苏仍然缓慢,还将延续更长的时间,全球经济仍面临不少风险和挑战。发达经济体货币政策分化,美联储加息预期增强,新兴市场国家面临资本外流冲击的风险。

2015年是我国全面完成“十二五”规划的收官之年,是全面深化改革的关键之年,也是全面推进依法治国的开局之年,在坚持稳中求进、改革创新的背景下,平衡好稳增长与促改革的关系十分重要,稳增长是为了保就业、防通缩、控风险,促改革是为了尽快形成新的增长动力。

预计2015年中国经济增长7.0%左右,经济增速比上年回落0.4个百分点,继续保持在就业稳定的合理区间。预计第三产业比重继续提高,固定资产投资增速进一步放缓,消费增长总体平稳,外贸进出口低速增长,物价涨幅继续走低,收入增长有所回落。

尽管目前CPI尚未出现通缩,但PPI持续通缩、CPI低位运行将使CPI通缩风险加大。要把供给管理与需求管理更好地结合起来,防范PPI通缩加剧、经济增长持续下行导致GDP平减指数陷入通缩、CPI由低位运行转为通货紧缩。

2015年,规范地方政府债务、积极推广PPP项目都是正确的决策。但也需要高度重视一般公共预算收入增速放缓、国有土地使用权出让收入下降、PPP项目落地存在时滞以及规范地方政府债务叠加而对经济增长产生的短期紧缩效应。为了有效对冲短期紧缩效应,应加强财政政策与货币政策的协调和配合,进一步加大政策性金融机构和开发性金融机构对重点领域定向支持的力度,增加基础设施投资,更加注重提高基础设施建设的经济效益和社会效益,提高投资效果。健全政府公共投资体系,优化政府投资使用方向和方式,加强预算内投资与开发性和政策性金融、债券、基金、保险等资金的协调配合,增加非融资平台的企业债发行,吸引和带动社会投资。

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课题总负责:李扬;执行负责人:李平、李雪松、张平;执笔:李雪松、张涛、樊明太、李军、娄峰、王文波;参加起草的还有:李文军、张延群、胡洁、刘生龙、蒋金荷、万相昱;刘强参加了讨论。

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CommonID:DIR_14084049,ID:4084049,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160107,name:B.2 2015~2020年:中国经济走势分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.2 Analysis of China’s Economic Trend in 2015-2020,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

我国经济发展进入新常态,其中一个重要特征是经济增长由高速转向中高速。但也有人把新常态片面理解为经济增速一路下行。对此,应予以高度重视,因为经济增速一路下行将会给我国经济与社会发展带来一系列严重问题。本文分析了这些问题,并提出防止经济增速一路下行的对策,即寻找对于经济增长具有中长期持久推动的力量。“一带一路”、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带三大国家战略的实施,将会成为推动我国经济增长的中长期的持久力量。本文认为,2015年,我国经济增速的回落有望触底;2016~2020年,经济增速有望止跌企稳,并适度回升。

,AbstractEN:

China’s economic development has entered a new normal,and an important characteristic among them is that economy growth rate from a high level to a medium-high-level. We should pay close attention to the attitude that treat new normal as decelerating of economy,because economy slow down will bring a series of serious problems to economic and social development in China. This paper analyses these issues and puts forward the countermeasures of preventing economy slow down,that is seeking the lasting driving force for economic growth. The implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,the coordinated development for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the three national strategies of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,will be long lasting power to promote China’s economic growth. This paper points out that China’s economic growth is expected to decline bottomed out in 2015 and is expected to stop falling and moderate rebound from 2016 to 2020.

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刘树成,中国社会科学院学部委员、经济学部副主任。

"},"Liu Shucheng":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015~2020年:中国经济走势分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015~2020年:中国经济走势分析,_RowNo:6
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本文利用国际上通用的合成指数、扩散指数和预警信号系统等计量经济方法对2015年我国经济增长周期态势进行了测定和预测。我国经济增长从2013年9月开始进入新一轮短周期的缓慢下降期,截至2015年初经济景气仍继续处于下降阶段。由于我国经济存在着下行压力,央行还应适时降息降准,缓解企业融资难、融资贵问题,有效降低社会融资成本。本文预计我国经济周期增长波动的谷底将在2015年第1季度出现,从第2季度开始有望止跌企稳,之后保持大体平稳、微幅上升的运行态势。预测2015年GDP增长率将达到7.2%左右,CPI上涨率为2%左右,经济增长和物价波动幅度明显减缓,政府应采取多项积极措施保障经济运行保持中速增长和低通胀的良好局面。

,AbstractEN:

This paper uses international synthetic index,general index and the early warning system of econometric methods to measure and predict the situation of China’s economic growth cycle in 2015. From September 2013,the economic growth of our country began a slow decline in a new round of short cycle,and by the early 2015,the economy continued to decline. Because of China’s economic downward pressure,the central bank should timely lower interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio to ease the financing difficulties and financing expensive problem,so that the social cost of financing is reduced. It is expected that the bottom of China’s economic cycle will appear in the first quarter of 2015,and from the beginning of the second quarter,the economy is expected to remain stable with a trend of slightly increase. China’s GDP growth rate in 2015 will reach around 7.2%,and the CPI growth rate will be about 2%. Economic growth and price fluctuation significantly slow down,and the government should take more active measures to keep the economy in good situation with medium speed growth rate and low inflation.

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孔宪丽,经济学博士,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院副教授。

"},"高铁梅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

高铁梅,东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心副主任,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院教授,博士生导师。

"},"张同斌":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

张同斌,经济学博士,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院讲师。

"},"Kong Xianli":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Gao Tiemei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Tongbin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015年中国宏观经济波动及走势的分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015年中国宏观经济波动及走势的分析与预测,_RowNo:7
CommonID:DIR_14084134,ID:4084134,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160109,name:B.4 2015年农业发展的评估与思考,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.4 Evaluation and Consideration of Agricultural Development in 2015,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

加快现代农业发展,方能消除农业的弱质性,把农产品增产建立在减少化肥、农药投入的基础上,灌溉面积增加建立在减少农业用水总量的基础上,农业增长建立在总要素生产力贡献率提高的基础上。要实现这一目标,必须深化农地制度、集体经济和乡村治理改革,并将替代农户规避风险的政策转为激励农户追求效益的政策,黄箱政策转为绿箱政策,实物形态的产权政策转为价值形态的产权政策,方针政策转为法律法规。

,AbstractEN:

In order to eliminate the weakness of agriculture and to accelerate the development of modern agriculture,we should increase the agricultural production based on reducing the input of chemical fertilizer and pesticides,increase the irrigation area based on reducing the total amount of agricultural water,and increase agriculture based on the improvement of total factor productivity contribution rate. To achieve this goal,we must deepen the reform of the rural land system,collective economy and rural governance,and replace the policy of avoiding risks to the policy of encouraging farmers to pursue benefit policy,turn the yellow box policy to the green box policy,replace the physical property policy to the value formed property policy,and change policies into laws and regulations.

,KeyWords:36330,8365,162738,EKeyWords:36333,23119,217529,SubjectWords:247128,LiteratureId:4084135,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201501010010126_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-05-26 13:40:29.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:59:04.0,HitCount:37,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:4084136,DownCount:27,AuthorInfos:{"李周":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

李周,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所所长,研究员。

"},"Li Zhou":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015年农业发展的评估与思考,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015年农业发展的评估与思考,_RowNo:8
CommonID:DIR_14084192,ID:4084192,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160110,name:B.5 当前工业经济形势分析与展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.5 Analysis and Prospect of the Current Situation of Industrial Economy,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

当前工业经济增速出现了明显回落,但产业结构调整取得了积极进展,增长动力逐步走向内生平衡增长,体现了从“旧常态”向“新常态”的过渡。下一阶段,工业经济面临的国内外不确定因素进一步增加,对工业经济增长既带来了一些机遇,也形成了较大的挑战。2015年,我国工业增长面临的困难将比2014年更大,增速也将进一步下行,预计全年工业经济增速将维持在8%左右。为促进工业经济的平稳运行,国家可重点出台四个方面的政策:一是拓宽投资领域,释放需求潜力;二是出台援助政策,缓解企业困难;三是深化体制改革,引导转型升级;四是促进融合发展,优化产业生态。

,AbstractEN:

At present,China’s industrial economic growth rate drops significantly,but the industrial structure adjustment makes positive progress,and the growth momentum gradually in balanced,which reflects a transition from the Old Normal to the New Normal. The industrial economy in the next stage is facing uncertain factors both at home and abroad,which bring some opportunities but also a greater challenge. In 2015,China’s industrial growth is facing greater difficulties than in 2014,the growth rate will be further downside,and it is expected that the annual industrial economic growth rate will remain at around 8%. In order to promote the smooth operation of the industrial economy,the government should focus on four aspects:firstly,expanding the area of investment and releasing the potential demand;secondly,applying foreign aid policy and alleviating difficulties of enterprises;thirdly,deepening the reform of the system and guiding the transformation and upgrading;fourthly,promoting the integration of development and optimizing industrial ecology.

,KeyWords:21755,20527,47604,EKeyWords:21757,20530,53089,SubjectWords:247134,LiteratureId:4084193,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201501010010126_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-05-26 13:40:29.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:59:04.0,HitCount:38,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:4084194,DownCount:24,AuthorInfos:{"原磊":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

原磊,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所工业经济运行研究室副主任,副研究员。

"},"金碚":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

金碚,中国社会科学院学部委员,研究员。

"},"Yuan Lei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Jin Bei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:当前工业经济形势分析与展望,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:当前工业经济形势分析与展望,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_14084247,ID:4084247,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160111,name:B.6 我国服务业2014年运行分析和2015年展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.6 Analysis and Prospect of China’s Service Industry in 2014 and 2015,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

2014年,服务业规模和增加值比重不断扩大,固定资产投资快速发展,实际使用外资快速增长,服务贸易规模迅速扩大,成为新常态下我国经济增长的新动力。然而,我国生产性服务业水平总体不高,部分生活性服务业有效供给不足,服务贸易长期逆差,服务业人才不足等问题成为制约我国服务业发展的瓶颈。2015年我国服务业增长速度有望保持在7.8%左右,服务业增加值比重将进一步提高,服务业固定资产投资增速继续强劲,服务业外商直接投资将继续保持5%以上增速,服务进出口规模将保持12%的增速。

,AbstractEN:

In 2014,the proportion of the scale and the added value of service industry continues to expand,investment in fixed assets rapid develops,the actual use of foreign investment fast grows,scale of trade in services is rapidly expanding,and the service industry becomes a new driving force for China’s economic growth in the New Normal. However,the overall level of China’s producer service industry is not high,the life service industry lack effective supply,the service trade is long-term deficit,and the talent shortage restricts the development of China’s service industry. In 2015,China’s service industry growth rate is expected to remain at around 7.8%,the proportion of the added value will further improve the service industry,fixed asset investment growth rate of service industry continues to be strong,the foreign direct investment in the service industry will continue to maintain more than 5%,and the scale growth rate of import and export services will maintain at 12%.

,KeyWords:25824,217530,7561,EKeyWords:37638,217531,8238,SubjectWords:247139,LiteratureId:4084248,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201501010010126_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-05-26 13:40:29.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:59:04.0,HitCount:37,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:4084249,DownCount:28,AuthorInfos:{"夏杰长":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

夏杰长,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院副院长,研究员。

"},"倪红福":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

倪红福,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院。

"},"Xia Jiechang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Ni Hongfu":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:我国服务业2014年运行分析和2015年展望,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:我国服务业2014年运行分析和2015年展望,_RowNo:10
CommonID:DIR_14084298,ID:4084298,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160112,name:B.7 2015年能源形势展望与对策建议,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.7 Energy Situation Analysis and Policy Recommendation in 2015,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

本文对2014年以来的能源形势进行了回顾和展望,对国际石油价格、国内需求结构变化等重大问题进行了分析,并对2015年能源形势做了初步预测。本文认为,国内能源需求的峰值已经基本达到,未来需求趋于稳定,应抓住这一有利时机调整能源结构,以能源清洁化为目标,推动能源生产、消费与技术革命,加快市场化改革的步伐。

,AbstractEN:

This report makes a retrospect on energy situation since 2014 as well as and some forecasting for 2015,focusing on some key issues such as world crude oil price,domestic demand structure changes. The conclusion is that demand peak of energy is coming and a slow negative growth can be foreseen,China should take advantage of this situation and promote the steps of energy structure adjustment,promote the revolution of energy production,consumption and technologies,as well as the market reform,targeting the transition to cleaner energy and marketization.

,KeyWords:31934,217532,33460,194506,EKeyWords:29487,217533,217534,194508,SubjectWords:247142,LiteratureId:4084299,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201501010010126_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-05-26 13:40:29.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:59:04.0,HitCount:32,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:4084300,DownCount:25,AuthorInfos:{"李平":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

李平,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所所长,研究员。

"},"刘强":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘强,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,副研究员。

"},"董惠梅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

董惠梅,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,副研究员。

"},"Li Ping":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Qiang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Dong Huimei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015年能源形势展望与对策建议,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015年能源形势展望与对策建议,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_14084395,ID:4084395,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160114,name:B.9 2015年中国金融形势与货币政策,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.9 China’s Financial Situation and Monetary Policy in 2015,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

2014年,我国国内经济存在以下特点:一是中国经济由高速增长向中高速增长快速换挡;二是通缩已现,但杠杆未去,泡沫犹存。在这个经济背景下,货币供应量与基础货币增速降低,人民币信贷增长和信贷结构趋于合理,社会融资规模同比增长率开始下降,金融机构存款增速合理,货币市场利率波动在下半年明显下降,债券市场指数总体上升,债券发行规模显著扩大,股票市场开始回暖,外汇储备增长合理。在货币政策操作方面,创设了再贷款等新的政策,实施了定向降准政策。展望2015年,宏观政策更关注就业市场,货币政策更关注长期金融稳定,货币政策更好地引导利率走势和利率结构,积极推行我国金融体系市场化改革进程。

,AbstractEN:

China’s domestic economy has the following characteristics:firstly,China’s economy growth rate shifts from rapid to quick condition;secondly,deflation has shown,but bubble has not gone.Under this economic background,the money supply and monetary base growth is reduced,the credit growth and credit structure become more reasonable,year-on-year growth rate of social financing scale begin to fall,financial institutions deposit growth is reasonable,money market interest rate fluctuations in the second half of the year is declined obviously,the bond market index rises overall,bond issuance is expanded significantly,the stock market begin to return,foreign exchange reserve growth is reasonable. In terms of monetary policy operation,China creates new policies,such as the refinancing and the directional down policy. Looking ahead to 2015,macro policy will be more focused on the job market,monetary policy will be more focused on the long-term financial stability,guiding the interest rates and interest rate structure,China will actively promote the marketization reform of finance system.

,KeyWords:7490,25768,67623,85902,EKeyWords:20169,27201,134673,124536,SubjectWords:247150,LiteratureId:4084396,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201501010010126_000_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-05-26 13:40:30.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:59:04.0,HitCount:65,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:4084397,DownCount:34,AuthorInfos:{"费兆奇":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

费兆奇,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融所助理研究员。

"},"彭兴韵":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

彭兴韵,中国社会科学院金融所货币理论与货币政策研究室主任,副研究员。

"},"Fei Zhaoqi":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Peng Xingyun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015年中国金融形势与货币政策,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015年中国金融形势与货币政策,_RowNo:12
CommonID:DIR_14084460,ID:4084460,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160115,name:B.10 2015年中国金融状况分析与预测10909502,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.10 China Financial Situation Analysis and Prediction of 2015,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

本文通过无限状态区制时变的动态因子模型,基于高维的金融变量指标体系,实现对我国金融状况指数的估计。结果显示:2011年以来,在稳健型货币政策的引导下,在经历了弱势回调的过程之后,于2014年末企稳回升;与此同时,伴随着世界经济的回暖,不利于中国金融状况的外部冲击影响也逐渐在减弱;向前10个月的预测结果显示,在2015年末之前,我国金融状况指数在回升的过程中仍存在短期震荡反复。

,AbstractEN:

Through the infinite state of time-varying dynamic factor model,based on high dimensional index system of financial variables,this paper estimates the financial conditions index in our country. Results show that our country financial conditions index has been undertaking the impact of the financial crisis,and has passed the digestion phase of stimulus. Since 2011,under the steady monetary policy guidance,after the process of weak callback,the financial conditions have been in stabilized situation in late 2014. At the same time,along with the recovery of the world economy,the external impact of the financial condition which is not conducive to China is also gradually weakened. The first 10 months of the prediction results show that before the end of 2015,China’s financial conditions index is still in short-term shocks iterative process during the recovery.

,KeyWords:128963,217537,138733,EKeyWords:128965,217538,20223,SubjectWords:247151,LiteratureId:4084461,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201501010010126_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-05-26 13:40:30.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:59:04.0,HitCount:44,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:4084462,DownCount:24,AuthorInfos:{"陈守东":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

陈守东,吉林大学数量经济研究中心主任,教授,博士生导师。

"},"刘洋":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘洋,吉林大学商学院。

"},"Chen Shoudong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Yang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015年中国金融状况分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015年中国金融状况分析与预测,_RowNo:13
CommonID:DIR_14084497,ID:13555405,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160116,name:B.11 2015年中国外贸双速增长,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.11 China’s Foreign Trade is Facing Two-speed Growth in 2015,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

2015年世界经济复苏乐观因素增加。美国经济复苏稳中有升,欧盟经济经历短暂曲折后复苏趋势再次抬头,日本经济在消化了提高消费税的负面影响后重拾升势,印度、东盟经济复苏势头所有扩大,埃博拉疫情受到控制、非洲经济再现活力,经验证明世界大宗商品价格下跌利大于弊,将拉高世界经济增长水平,各国政府纷纷采取宽松货币政策支持经济发展,等等,诸因素为中国扩大出口营造出较好环境,预计2015年中国出口增长有望达到8.0%。相比之下,2015年中国国内经济下行压力较大。国务院总理李克强在政府工作报告中提出2015年中国经济增长目标为7.0%左右,在积极的财政政策和保障固定资产投资方面令人印象深刻,增加了一些信心,但设定的社会零售商品总额增速目标偏于乐观。建议央行采取力度较大的宽松政策,预计2015年中国进口有望增长4.9%。

,AbstractEN:

The positive factors of the world economic recovery increase in 2015:the US economy recovers steadily and is rising;the EU economy resurges after experiencing a brief but tortuous period;the Japanese economy regains recovery after digesting the negative effects of raising the consumption tax;the economic recovery situation of India and ASEAN expand;Africa’s economic vitality reappears while its Ebola outbreak was under control;the benefits of falling commodity prices outweigh the risks,which is conducive to world economic growth;governments are adopting loose monetary policy to support their economies and so on,all of which contribute to China’s export expansion by creating a better environment. The growth rate of China’s export is expected to rise 8.0 percent in 2015.In contrast,downward pressure on China’s economy will continue to mount in 2015. China targeted economic growth of approximately 7 percent in 2015,according to Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report. The practice of proactive fiscal policy and the insurance of investment in fixed assets are impressive and boosting confidence,while the prediction for the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods tend to be a bit rosier. Under the premise of the implementation of looser policy by the Chinese central bank,China’s import is expected to grow at the rate of 4.9 percent in 2015 by our mathematical models analysis.

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金柏松,商务部研究院研究员。

"},"刘建颖":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘建颖,商务部研究院副研究员,博士。

"},"Jin Baisong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Jianying":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2015年中国外贸双速增长,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2015年中国外贸双速增长,_RowNo:14
CommonID:DIR_14084551,ID:4084551,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:160117,name:B.12 贸易便利化改革:上海自贸区的经验分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:B.12 Trade Facilitation Reform:Empirical Analysis on Shanghai Free Trade Zone,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:4083995,AbstractCH:

贸易便利化改革是上海自贸区建设的重要目标任务。发达国家一般通过以下方法促进贸易便利化:采用先进的信息技术、建立“单一窗口”、广泛开展海关合作、注重风险管理、简化通关程序、不断优化税制。根据总体方案和便利化标准,上海自贸区存在协同监管效率有待提高、单一窗口有待完善、风险管理意识仍需加强、法律法规尚不健全等问题。对此上海自贸区要完善法律法规、实行快捷通关、推进单一窗口、强化风险管理、搭建合作平台、加强信息化建设。

,AbstractEN:

Trade facilitation reform is an important goal of Shanghai free trade zone construction tasks. Developed countries usually improve trade facilitation by the following method:the use of advanced information technology,establishing a “single window”,extensive customs cooperation,pay attention to risk management,simplify customs clearance procedures and optimizing the tax system. According to the evaluation of the scheme and facilitation standards,Shanghai free trade zone has some problems,such as coordinated regulation needing to improve efficiency,single window needing to be perfect,risk management consciousness needing to strengthen and the laws and regulations being not sound and so on. Thus,Shanghai free trade zone should perfect legal laws and regulations,implement fast customs clearance,promote “single window”,strengthen risk management,establish cooperation platform and enhance information measures.

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裴长洪,中国社会科学院经济所所长,研究员。

"},"陈丽芬":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

陈丽芬,中国社会科学院经济所博士后和商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院副研究员。

"},"Pei Changhong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Chen Lifen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2015-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:贸易便利化改革:上海自贸区的经验分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-7418-2,BookTitle:2015年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:贸易便利化改革:上海自贸区的经验分析,_RowNo:15
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