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| 书 名： | 中国人可以多生！ | ||||
| 英 文 名： | China Needs More Babies | ||||
| 作 者： | 梁建章 李建新 黄文政 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5097-6086-4 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 人口政策 研究报告 中国 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2014-07-01 | ||||
中文摘要
本书是对中国计划生育政策的讨论。本书结合中国计划生育政策的实践，对照世界发达国家及人口规模较大的发展中国家的人口发展历史，特别从高科技发展的视角，检讨了中国人口政策的经验和教训，指出了计划生育政策所无法回避的问题和挑战。作为一家之言，作者对计划生育政策的否定意见，有助于进一步科学制定中国的人口发展规划与具体政策，具有积极的社会意义。
文章列表
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CommonID:DIR_15454977,ID:5454977,SiteID:14,Type:formerAidText,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166869,name:再版序言,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:null,AbstractEN:null,KeyWords:null,EKeyWords:null,SubjectWords:null,LiteratureId:5454978,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:Y,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:null,XmlID:null,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:0,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:0,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:再版序言,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:再版序言,_RowNo:2
CommonID:DIR_15454979,ID:5454979,SiteID:14,Type:formerAidText,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166870,name:引言,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:null,AbstractEN:null,KeyWords:null,EKeyWords:null,SubjectWords:null,LiteratureId:5454980,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:Y,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:null,XmlID:null,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:0,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:0,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:引言,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:引言,_RowNo:3
CommonID:DIR_15454982,ID:5454982,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166871,name:1 中国会有多少亿人,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:在几十年的“一面倒”的偏执宣传下，中国社会对生育和人口问题的认知已经远远偏离了维持民族繁衍所需要的正常状态，你也许就是这种极端思维的受害者。若这种状态没有得到根本的改变，中国最终一定会付出最为沉重的代价。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:61787,75665,2786,EKeyWords:77082,81102,2787,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5454983,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:13,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5454984,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国会有多少亿人,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国会有多少亿人,_RowNo:4
CommonID:DIR_15455002,ID:5455002,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166872,name:2 人多耽误共富吗,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:在经济发展的低级阶段，土地和资源是经济发展的瓶颈，人口少可以减轻土地和资源的压力，但是到了经济发展的高级阶段，高素质的年轻人口则成为经济发展的动力。那么中国经济什么时候可以达到经济发展的高级阶段 而我们的生育政策如何与之相适应呢？一个父母现在计划多生一个小孩，这个小孩要在20~30年后才会长大并工作。我们现在谈论生育政策，影响的是30年后中国年轻工作人口的数量，所以，现在的生育政策必须和30年后中国经济的发展相适应。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:62634,21565,61788,EKeyWords:471664,23485,208672,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455003,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:7,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455004,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:人多耽误共富吗,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:人多耽误共富吗,_RowNo:5
CommonID:DIR_15455039,ID:5455039,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166873,name:3 21世纪真的会是中国的世纪吗,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:全面放开生育虽然对与养育相关的公共资源会造成暂时的压力，但完全可以应对。而对整个经济发展来说，全面放开生育，无论是对消费需求和资本市场、人力资源和劳动市场、政府税收和财政， 还是对创新和产业发展的作用都是极其正面的。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:471665,471666,2786,EKeyWords:471667,471668,2787,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455040,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:16,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455041,DownCount:9,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:21世纪真的会是中国的世纪吗,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:21世纪真的会是中国的世纪吗,_RowNo:6
CommonID:DIR_15455091,ID:5455091,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166874,name:4 日本经济的老年病,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:日本已经陷入老龄化陷阱，由于其人口老龄化，创新和创业能力缺失，在过去20年的高科技浪潮中，败给了美国，甚至落后于韩国等其他新兴国家。这是日本经济一蹶不振的真正原因，而且一旦陷入这个陷阱，就难以自拔。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:4392,410583,20832,EKeyWords:28722,410584,30328,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455092,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:16,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455093,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:日本经济的老年病,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:日本经济的老年病,_RowNo:7
CommonID:DIR_15455113,ID:5455113,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166875,name:5 人口与资源,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:随着经济的发展，人所创造的价值相对于自然资源的贡献越来越大，靠减少人口来降低所谓的资源压力完全就是本末倒置，既削弱了自己的军事潜力、政治影响力，又降低自己的经济优势，让一个有望靠人的才智来创造高附加值的经济体向一个出卖初级资源的低端经济体的方向退化。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:2533,6990,5197,EKeyWords:2534,42316,23802,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455114,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:13,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455115,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:人口与资源,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:人口与资源,_RowNo:8
CommonID:DIR_15455143,ID:5455143,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166876,name:6 人口与环境,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:全国人口下降一半所对应的拥挤度缓解不过是两三年的经济发展。而且，俄罗斯与日本的经验表明，若人口规模长期衰减，人口分布会更不均匀，大量中小城市和城镇会衰败，年轻人更可能会涌向大城市，既不能缓解大城市的问题，也让人们可以选择的城市大幅减少。基于这些分析，我们建议立即全面放开生育。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:90963,169085,44824,EKeyWords:449532,169086,81964,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455144,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:21,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455145,DownCount:4,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:人口与环境,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:人口与环境,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_15455164,ID:5455164,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166877,name:7 性别失衡与家庭风险,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:一胎政策造成的家庭风险增加，还带来各种社会副作用。比如说，家长成天担心独生子女小孩出意外，不让小孩从事任何有风险的活动。又比如说，未来一对独生子女夫妇要抚养4个老人，如果4个老人同时需要照顾，这对独生子女夫妇必然不堪重负。总而言之，一胎政策加剧了中国社会和家庭的各种风险，其代价是巨大的。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:95769,30250,61788,EKeyWords:401101,30254,208672,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455165,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:19,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455166,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:性别失衡与家庭风险,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:性别失衡与家庭风险,_RowNo:10
CommonID:DIR_15455194,ID:5455194,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166878,name:8 人口变迁与国力兴衰,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:大国兴衰的历史事实上是多种看似独立发展但却相关的因素耦合的结果，不存在任何单一的决定性因素。不过，由于人口是最基础性和持续性的因素，其变化对民族、国家的兴衰有着不可低估的重要影响，尤其是人口变量还处于“活跃”之时。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:34922,460375,78522,EKeyWords:95393,471670,109567,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455195,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:44.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:10,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455196,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:人口变迁与国力兴衰,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:人口变迁与国力兴衰,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_15455221,ID:5455221,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166879,name:9 全球化下的人口机遇,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:盛世不可持续吗？实际上，全球化为中国人口提供了一个更大的生存空间，一个更大的施展竞争力的舞台。全球化对于中国人口最大的机遇，就是中国人口有了可以超越传统意义上国家领土边界的更大的国际舞台；全球化对于中国人口最大的挑战，不是在于控制缩减人口数量，而是如何把中国人口的潜在数量和结构优势发挥出来，并提升生育率以继续保持这种优势，从而对世界和平与人类社会发展做出贡献。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:3903,471672,32350,EKeyWords:5650,471674,32395,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455222,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:44.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:18,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455223,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:全球化下的人口机遇,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:全球化下的人口机遇,_RowNo:12
CommonID:DIR_15455246,ID:14768851,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166880,name:10 政策迷途,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:经济增长是社会发展的核心，人口与经济的本质关系是人口内部结构变动与经济发展之间的关系。我国这种人口年龄结构的加速老化，首先意味着年轻人口的迅速减少，不仅使经济社会的发展失去了生机和创造力，更将极大地影响到我国经济可持续增长后劲和国际竞争力。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:59304,471677,5194,EKeyWords:59344,471680,5295,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455247,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:44.0,ModifyUser:null,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:7,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455248,DownCount:1,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国人口政策迷途,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国人口政策迷途,_RowNo:13
CommonID:DIR_15455269,ID:5455269,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:166881,name:11 中国人可以多生,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:5454968,AbstractCH:我们认为完全放开生育并无风险。最关键的是，不应该把孩子增加当成洪水猛兽。在生育率比我们高得多的西方国家，婴儿潮被当成社会福祉，因为大多数国家都明白，孩子是最珍贵的资源。自然资源可以从市场上购买， 唯有本民族的孩子需要自己生育和培养。即便应对出生的反弹需要一些付出，但未来的报酬将远远超过这些付出。一个不愿为孩子付出的民族是没有未来的。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:453823,75665,2786,EKeyWords:453852,81102,2787,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:5455270,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201503010010195_000_011,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2015-07-27 14:02:44.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 20:26:48.0,HitCount:11,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:5455271,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2014-07-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国人可以多生,ISBN:978-7-5097-6086-4,BookTitle:中国人可以多生！,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国人可以多生,_RowNo:14
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