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2016年世界经济形势分析与预测

书 名: 2016年世界经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON WORLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST (2016)
作 者: 王洛林 张宇燕 孙杰
I S B N: 978-7-5097-8488-4
丛 书 名: 世界经济黄皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  世界经济 经济分析 经济预测
出版日期: 2015-12-01

中文摘要

2015年世界经济增速放缓,反映出全球复苏之路崎岖艰辛。大宗商品价格继续下降,全球物价水平增速下行,部分经济体面临通缩压力。整体就业状况有所改善,但各经济体间存在差异。国际贸易负增长,国际直接投资有所恢复,跨国并购活跃,区域合作取得进展。金融市场波动剧烈,关联性明显。全球总债务水平处于历史高位,其不可持续性提升了风险层级。

2016年世界经济受到一系列不确定和趋势性因素的影响,包括发达经济体需求管理政策效果能否延续,美联储加息的时间、速率和力度如何,全球超高债务水平对金融稳定可能带来多大威胁,新兴市场和发展中经济体连续五年经济增速下滑的势头能否得到有效遏制,许多经济体内外经济政策和结构改革受到既得利益集团不断掣肘的危害程度,等等。此外,地缘政治变化和自然灾变亦会对世界经济运行与业绩带来负面干扰。

预计2016年按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率约为3.0%。如果爆发金融危机且具有较强的传染性,按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率将约为2.0%。

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