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人口老龄化经济效应分析

书 名: 人口老龄化经济效应分析
英 文 名: The Economic Effects of an Aging Population
作 者: 李军
I S B N: 7-80190-855-4
丛 书 名: 中国社会科学院 经济政策与模拟重点研究室·学术文丛 订阅
关 键 词:  老龄化 中老年 经济效应
出版日期: 2005-12-01

中文摘要

本书主要在宏观经济的框架内,以定量与定性相结合的方式,论述人口老龄化对经济增长、养老保障制度、经济总需求等方面的作用效应。研究的基本思路是:人口老龄化本质是改变劳动力与非劳动力之间的比例关系,即人力资源结构的变化,由此必然对应经济资源配置关系的变化,从而使人口老龄化对经济产生多方面深刻而长远的影响效应。本书通过建立人口老龄化因素变量与诸多经济变量的直接作用关系,形成了分析人口老龄化经济效应的一种相对独立的理论体系,具有很高的学术价值与政策指导意义。

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作为本书的开始,第一章主要介绍人口老龄化有关的基本问题。主要涉及对人口老龄化概念、现状以及有关研究成果的介绍与评述等方面的内容。

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本章主要为后面定量分析人口老龄化效应而进行有关理论与方法上的准备。主要涉及对经济增长理论、索洛增长模型、消费理论、世代交叠模型以及有关计算公式等进行简介。

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本章开始分析人口老龄化因素对经济增长的影响效应。主要内容有:首先引入体现人口老龄化因素的变量,并将其引入到索洛模型中;建立包含有人口老龄化因素变量的经济平衡增长路径方程;分析人口老龄化因素的引入对经济平衡增长路径的影响效应。

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本章在第三章的基础上继续分析人口老龄化因素对经济增长的影响效应,即动态考察人口老龄化因素对经济平衡增长路径、产出和劳动力消费等方面的影响效应。

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本章开始分析人口老龄化对养老保障系统的影响效应。主要内容有:对现收现付制、基金制和名义账户制(NDC)进行简述;在两期世代交叠分析模式的基础上分别分析人口老龄化对现收现付制、基金制和名义账户制养老保障系统的影响效应。

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本章主要在第五章的基础上讨论不同养老制度下养老资金收支平衡有关问题。在人口老龄化程度不断加深的情况下,养老资金的收支平衡是关系到养老保障系统能否稳定与可持续发展的关键性问题。该章主要分别分析在现收现付制、名义账户制和基金制下,人口老龄化与有关因素对养老资金收支平衡的影响效应。

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前面的第三、四章主要是从生产方面分析了人口老龄化对经济增长的影响效应。而从养老方面看,养老是一种消费,而消费是构成经济总需求的重要组成部分。因此人口老龄化通过养老行为势必对需求产生重要的影响作用。特别是在老龄化程度不断加深的情况下,养老消费对经济总需求的影响效应将越来越深刻。因此,以下主要从需求方面分析人口老龄化的有关作用效应。

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从本章开始转入对中国现实问题的分析与讨论。本章主要通过实际数据展现中国人口老龄化与养老资金的有关现状。主要内容有:中国人口老龄化现状分析;中国老龄化区域分布分析;中国城乡人口结构及城乡人口老龄化对比分析;中国社会保障资金数量分析。

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本章主要对中国未来人口老龄化发展趋势进行预测。主要内容有:分别运用数理公式法和计量经济模型法对中国未来人口老龄化程度进行测算;对未来中国人口老龄化及人口结构变动特点进行分析;对中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响效应进行实际测算。

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本章主要从中国养老制度改革的实际出发论述相关问题并提出政策建议。主要内容有:简述当前中国养老制度现状;回顾中国养老保障体制的发展历程;最后对中国养老保障中的有关问题进行简析并提出有关政策建议。

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