中国周边安全形势评估（2016）

2015年，中国周边安全形势错综复杂。美国坚定地实施战略东移，其亚太同盟体系防范、遏制中国的态势不减反增，中美关系中的战略竞争性凸显；日本向“正常国家”转型，中日在海上安全、对外投资等多个领域矛盾重重，关系持续低迷；中俄就“一带一路”与“欧亚经济联盟”的对接达成共识，战略合作关系加强；印度的亚太战略从“向东看”转变为“向东干”，试图对华实行维持经济合作与战略平衡的“双轨政策”。此外，中国与各次区域的主要国家关系相对稳定，韩国、印尼、哈萨克斯坦等国对“一带一路”的态度积极，战略对接态势明显。

海上争端、恐怖主义以及气候与环境问题对中国周边安全构成现实及潜在的重大挑战。东南部海域持续动荡不安，尤其是围绕岛礁建设的中美博弈加剧，南海军事化态势明显，使得海上安全形势存在很大的不确定性。“伊斯兰国”极端势力的战略改变及其影响力的外溢，使得中国周边广大地区面临着严重的安全威胁。经济发展和人口增长等因素造成中国及其周边各国面临着水资源短缺与污染、城市空气污染与林火雾霾、生物多样化的丧失、气候变化等环境问题。加强非传统安全的合作与机制建设是周边各国的共识，也应成为中国提供公共产品、促进地区安全互信的有为领域。

2016年，中国周边安全形势至少面临四大挑战：一是大国博弈激烈，尤其是中美在安全与经济领域的规则制定权的竞争，中日在地区对外投资项目的争夺；二是海上争端或将激化，中美在南海海域的军事威慑与反威慑、中菲国际仲裁案的判决将会增大地区形势的不稳定性，迟滞地区安全与政治的互信建设；三是恐怖主义、气候与环境问题等非传统安全的挑战形势严峻；四是周边国家政治转型或政局变动将会影响其对华政策的稳定性。

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总篇

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附录

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书名：	中国周边安全形势评估（2016）
英文名：	China’s Regional Security Environment Review：2016
作者：	张洁
I S B N：	978-7-5097-8646-8
丛书名：	国际战略研究丛书订阅
关键词：	国际形势国家安全研究报告一带一路
出版日期：	2016-01-01