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中国房地产发展报告No.13(2016)

书 名: 中国房地产发展报告No.13(2016)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S REAL ESTATE No.13 (2016)
作 者:  李春华 王业强 尚教蔚 董昕
I S B N: 978-7-5097-9071-7
丛 书 名: 房地产蓝皮书
关 键 词:  房地产业 投融资 土地市场
出版日期: 2016-05-01

中文摘要

《中国房地产发展报告No.13(2016)》继续秉承客观公正、科学中立的宗旨和原则,追踪中国房地产市场最新动态,深度剖析市场热点,展望2016年发展趋势,谋划应对策略。全书分为总报告、土地篇、金融篇、市场篇、管理篇、区域篇、国际借鉴篇、热点篇。总报告对房地产业和房地产市场的发展态势进行全面、综合的分析,其余各篇分别从不同的角度对房地产次级市场发展、区域市场和热点问题进行深度分析。

房地产市场经过一年多的调整,2015年,商品房销售成交价格总体上涨,住宅和办公楼的销售价格涨幅较高,而商业营业用房销售价格则出现下跌;商品房销售量增幅由负转正,办公楼销售量增幅较大。房地产库存水平依然较高,但增速明显下降,商办物业的库存比住宅更为严峻。住房租金涨幅小幅收窄,明显低于住房售价涨幅,但仍高于CPI涨幅;房地产开发投资低迷,住宅投资接近零增长;开发资金来源中,销售回款明显增加,其他来源资金萎缩;土地购置面积与土地成交价款均大幅下降,但土地平均成交价格增幅高于商品房销售价格增幅;房屋新开工面积全线下降,施工面积小幅增加,仍处于库存去化期。

展望2016年,受一系列不确定和趋势性因素影响,世界经济增长形势依然不容乐观。房地产作为广义资本市场一部分,其不确定性风险必将不断提升。2008年国际金融危机以来,中国GDP增速一直处于下滑区间,2015年中国GDP增速跌破7%。2016年宏观经济持续下滑将是大概率事件,从而导致房地产价格预期进一步降低,住房需求增速减缓,对房地产市场形成向下压力。

从政策层面看,短期通过货币或财政政策刺激需求,长期将实行供给侧改革。即,一方面,围绕房地产“去库存”,继续执行宽松的财政和货币政策刺激市场需求,维持市场活跃;另一方面,围绕房地产供给侧改革,实施分类调控,以适度缓和区域分化、冷热不均现象,维持市场稳定将是2016年房地产政策基调:对于一线城市和部分需求热点二线城市,增加土地供应将是重点,同时继续实行限购政策,甚至出台相关政策,抑制一线市场过热,以防止投资需求过快增长致房价涨幅过高;多数二线和三、四线城市以刺激需求、去库存为主,购房落户、税费减免、财政补贴政策,以及教育、医疗等配套措施有望在各地全面铺开。

从市场表现看,在积极的财政政策和偏宽松的货币政策推动下,2016年房地产市场逐渐回稳:房地产投资止跌转增,开发商在一、二线市场销售旺盛推动下逐渐恢复投资信心;随着投机性需求和改善性住房需求的进一步释放,房地产销售将进一步增长;三、四线城市的房地产去库存难以取得突破性进展;随着政策刺激效应衰减,房地产销售有再次回落风险;一线和部分二线城市房价仍将持续上涨,但上涨幅度将有所减缓;二线城市房价将全面上涨,涨幅区域分化明显;三、四线城市在宽松政策推动下库存将有所减少,房地产价格跌幅逐渐收窄回稳。但从较长时期看,如果宏观经济增长继续下滑,房地产价格有可能在2017年下半年再次出现全面下滑趋势。

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