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| 书 名： | 数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期） | ||||
| 英 文 名： | The Journal of Quantitative Economics Vol.7 No.1 2016 | ||||
| 作 者： | 张屹山 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5097-9058-8 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 数量经济学 经济问题 金融市场 金融风险管理 经济计量 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2016-06-01 | ||||
中文摘要
《数量经济研究》是刊载经济学科最新研究论文的学术集刊。其内容涉及经济理论与方法研究、重大现实经济问题研究、金融市场与金融风险管理、微观经济计量与经济模拟等。该集刊坚持理论研究和实践研究相结合、定量分析和定性分析相结合，为数量经济学的理论与应用研究提供平台。集刊特别关注我国社会、经济等领域的重大学科前沿问题，以及结合中国的实际和现实问题进行深入分析、阐述和探索的高水平研究成果。
文章列表
本文利用NBER传统方法和动态因子模型计算景气指数，并基于B-B法获得转折点信息，作为经济周期波动基准日期的参考。两个景气指数及其转折点日期信息十分接近，共同反映出我国经济周期波动态势，通过对比存在差异的峰谷点信息，发现SW景气指数确定的峰谷点更准确，暂定为我国经济周期波动的基准日期。基于此，本文将我国21世纪这段时期划分为四轮经济周期，前两轮经济周期表现出上升阶段长、下降阶段短的非对称特征，而后两轮经济周期出现了上升阶段短而下降阶段长的非对称特征，我国经济目前正处于第四轮经济周期的收缩阶段。同时，本文考察了马尔可夫转换（MS）方法在我国经济周期转折点识别研究中的适用性，发现MS方法并不适合作为判断我国经济周期转折点信息的方法。
,AbstractEN:This paper calculates climate indexes by both the traditional method of NBER and dynamic factor model （DFMs），and obtains the information of the turning points from the indexes respectively based on Bry-Boschan Method （B-B），which is taken as a reference of business cycle fluctuation. The two climate indexes and relevant information of the turning points are close，they reflect the trend of Chinese business cycle fluctuation. Comparing the peaks and troughs which are different，this paper finds that SW climate index is more precise，so the turning points of the SW index are identified as the reference dates of Chinese business cycles. Based on the index，there exist four business cycles since 2000. We find that the first two business cycles have the asymmetry character of long expansion stage and short contraction stage，while the recent two business cycles have an opposite asymmetry character and China’s economy is still in a contraction stage now. This paper also investigates whether Markov Switching （MS） model can be used to identify China’s cyclical turning points. Unfortunately，this paper concludes that MS approach is not a good choice to decide China’s cyclical turning points.
,KeyWords:5692,36355,82223,335682,EKeyWords:31268,70237,335683,335684,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204676,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:42:57.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:26,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204677,DownCount:8,AuthorInfos:{"王金明":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"电子邮箱：wangjm@jlu.edu.cn；","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王金明（1975-），男，吉林辽源人，教授，博士生导师，研究方向：经济周期波动监测和预警。电话：13504476264。
"},"刘旭阳":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"电子邮箱：453815316@qq.com。","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘旭阳，女，1991年7月生，吉林大学商学院硕士研究生；电话：13634371037。
"}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于经济景气指数对我国经济周期波动转折点的识别,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于经济景气指数对我国经济周期波动转折点的识别,_RowNo:4本文使用基于RTV-DFM合成的FCI来分析中国的金融状况，通过分析中国的金融周期与景气循环特征来把握中国金融的基本状况，并在此基础上进行预测。研究发现：本文合成的FCI很好地刻画了中国的金融状况，中国金融周期与货币政策周期高度一致；可作为金融经济变量的先行指标；预测显示中国金融状况将渐进式“走出最坏，逼近光明”。
,AbstractEN:This paper，based on FCI synthesized by RTV-DFM to analysis China’s financial condition，attempted to grasp the basic financial situation through the analysis of the financial cycle and boom-and-bust characteristics of the China，and then make predictions. The study finds that FCI of this paper is a good description of China’s financial condition which could be used as the leading indicator of financial economic variables，and China’s financial cycle is highly consistent with the monetary policy cycle；besides，the forecast shows that China’s financial condition will gradually “get out of the worst，approaching the light”.
,KeyWords:128963,335685,335686,335687,EKeyWords:335688,335689,335690,335691,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204727,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:42:58.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:23,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204728,DownCount:10,AuthorInfos:{"陈守东":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈守东（1955-），男，天津蓟县人，吉林大学教授、博士生导师，研究方向：金融财务决策、金融工程与风险管理。
"},"孙彦林":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"孙彦林（1991-），男，内蒙古巴彦淖尔人，博士研究生，研究方向：金融计量分析。
"},"刘洋":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘洋（1978-），男，吉林长春人，博士研究生，研究方向：金融计量分析。
"}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国金融周期与景气循环研究,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国金融周期与景气循环研究,_RowNo:5基于年龄结构对居民消费的影响，本文通过对于居民消费的分解与加权汇总，构建出包含社会抚养比与人均可支配收入的省际居民人均消费函数，并利用我国2005～2014年的省际面板数据对该函数进行了实证分析。结果表明，在一定的收入水平下，我国老年人口的消费倾向最高，成年人口居中，少儿人口最低；少儿人口和老年人口的消费倾向随着收入的增加而降低，成年人口的消费倾向随着收入的增加而提高；少儿抚养比的上升将降低居民人均消费倾向，而老年抚养比的上升将提高居民人均消费倾向。
,AbstractEN:To study the impacts of age distribution on household consumption，this paper develops a provincial household per capita consumption function based on social dependency ratio and household per capita disposable income through the decomposition and weighed aggregation of household consumption，which is then estimated using China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014. The result indicates that under certain range of disposable income，the elderly and the children have the highest and lowest propensity to consume respectively，while the propensity of the adults falls in between. With the increase of disposable income，the propensity to consume of the children and the elderly gets lower while that of the adults behaves in an opposite way. Empirically，the increase of children’s and elderly dependency ratio separately decreases and increases the household per capita propensity to consume.
,KeyWords:65240,218084,146499,2786,EKeyWords:65242,218085,146500,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204767,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:42:59.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:25,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204768,DownCount:8,AuthorInfos:{"赵国庆":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"姚青松":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:人口年龄结构与居民消费——基于中国2005～2014年省际面板数据的实证研究,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:人口年龄结构与居民消费——基于中国2005～2014年省际面板数据的实证研究,_RowNo:6本文以工业为例，探讨产业发展对劳动力流动的作用效果。本文选择1999～2011年全国31个省、自治区、直辖市（不含港澳台，下同）的工业数据，以工业相对从业人数的年增长值刻画工业劳动力的流动，运用变替代弹性生产函数的面板数据对工业产业发展对劳动力流动的作用效果进行实证检验。研究结果表明，地区工业产业发展促进江苏等东部沿海地区劳动力流入与河北等中西部地区劳动力回流，而工业产业的发展并未对北京、黑龙江等地区产生明显的作用，此类地区工业劳动力仍持续流出。在工业劳动力流动的经济系统中，工业工资的变动与工业的资本劳动替代效应也对工业劳动力流动有显著影响。
,AbstractEN:Taking industry as an example，this paper aims to explore the industry development effects on indusrial labor mobility. This paper chooses 31 provinces municipalities（excluding Hong Kong，Macao and Taiwan） industry data in China from 1999 to2011，uses employment data of industrial enterprises above designedsize by regions/population data to measure industry labor mobility and panal data in variable elasticityof substitution production function（VES）to examine. The result show that Industrydevelopmentpromotes inflow of Jiangsu and other eastern coastal provinces andreturn migration of Hebei and other Midwest provinces.But The industry development have not a significant effect on Beijing，Heilongjian and other provinces，industry labor in these places still flows out. In the economic system of industrial labor mobility，capital movements and industrial wage have also significant effect on industrial labor mobility.
,KeyWords:2786,335693,102142,335694,EKeyWords:25887,98511,335695,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204817,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:43:00.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:11,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204818,DownCount:8,AuthorInfos:{"孙巍":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"刘智超":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:工业产业发展对工业劳动力流动影响研究,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:工业产业发展对工业劳动力流动影响研究,_RowNo:7金融不稳定是引起和放大宏观经济波动的重要因素。本文通过考察中国上市公司破产距离的分布特征和变动规律，度量并分析了1996～2013年之间中国金融稳定性的波动态势，分析表明，本文度量的金融稳定性指数不仅反映了金融市场的波动现实，而且包含了重要的宏观经济信息。进一步，本文通过构建 TVP-VAR模型深入分析了中国金融稳定性与通货膨胀率、经济增长率之间的时变影响动态。结果表明宏观经济冲击对金融稳定性的影响较为稳定，而金融稳定性变动对宏观经济目标变量的冲击具有明显的时变特征，且金融稳定的“价格效应”明显大于“产出效应”。
,AbstractEN:This paper measures the financial soundness in China in the years of 1996-2013，based on analyzing the distribution characteristics listing Corporation’s distance to insolvency. Analysis results show that，the financial soundness index measured in this paper contains future macroeconomic information. Furthermore，this paper analyzes the time-varying interactive effects between financial soundness and main macroeconomic variables by structuring the TVP-VAR model. The results show that the impacts of macroeconomic shocks on the financial soundness are relatively stable，while the impacts of the financial soundness changes on macroeconomic target variables have obvious time-varying characteristics，and the “price effect” of financial stability is obviously larger than the “output effect”.
,KeyWords:2786,335696,5017,5194,EKeyWords:335698,5340,5295,335697,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204851,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:43:01.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:7,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204852,DownCount:8,AuthorInfos:{"邓创":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"邓创（1979.7\u2014），男，汉族，湖南益阳人，吉林大学数量经济研究中心副教授，博士生导师，数量经济学博士，理论经济学博士后，研究方向为宏观经济计量分析与预测。
"},"王思怡":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王思怡（1992.12\u2014），女，汉族，湖南益阳人，吉林大学商学院。
"},"甘喆":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"甘喆（1995.2\u2014），女，汉族，江西宜春人，吉林大学商学院。
"}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国金融稳定性的度量及其与主要宏观经济变量的关系,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国金融稳定性的度量及其与主要宏观经济变量的关系,_RowNo:8农产品作为食品供应链的源头，其质量安全关系到每一个人的身体健康及生命安全。而不断发生的农产品安全风险事件将农产品安全问题推向社会舆论的焦点，引起社会的普遍恐慌。影响农产品质量安全的因素复杂多样，其中农药的不合理施用，是威胁农产品质量安全的最主要因素之一。基于这些认识，本文以费希宾合理行为模型为支撑，以江苏、山东、浙江、黑龙江和河南五省的986 个农户的调查数据为依据，运用结构方程模型对调查所得数据进行分析，试图构建一个包括残留认知、风险感知、行为态度、主观规范和安全施药意向在内的概念模型。通过研究发现，农户施药行为态度对行为意向的影响程度最大；残留认知直接影响行为意向，同时也作用于行为态度，主观规范间接影响行为意向；风险感知与残留认知的相关性较高；主观规范在一定程度上影响个人态度。在结论的基础上文章提出相应的优化路径。
,AbstractEN:Agricultural products is the source of food supply chain，the quality and safety of it in relation to each person’s health and life safety. The ongoing food safety risk events push the security problems of agricultural products to the important issue，caused social widespread panic. The factors influencing the quality and safety of agricultural products is complicated. Pesticide unreasonable application was the threat of the quality and safety of agricultural products. For the above-mentioned recognition，the paper is based on Fishbein model of reasoned action，with household survey data from 986 farmers in Jiangsu，Shandong，Zhejiang，Heilongjiang and Henan Province. The structural equation model method is adopted to analyze，and seek to build a conceptual model which include pesticide residues perception，perceived risk，attitude，subjective norm and behavior intention. The results show that attitude towards pesticide application seriously influence behavior intention. Pesticide residues perception influence their behavior intention directly，meanwhile it act on attitude、subjective norm，and influence their behavior intention indirectly. There is a high correlation between perceived risk and pesticide residues perception. Subjective norms affect the personal attitude in a certain extent .On the basis of the conclusion，the article put forward the corresponding optimization path.
,KeyWords:2786,335699,335700,335701,EKeyWords:335702,329821,305232,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204891,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:43:02.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:16,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204892,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"王建华":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王建华（1979-），江南大学商学院副教授，博士，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为食品安全管理与农业经济。
"},"邓远远":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"邓远远（1993-），江南大学商学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为食品安全管理与农业经济。
"},"吴林海":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"吴林海（1962-），江南大学商学院教授，博士生导师，江南大学江苏省食品安全研究基地首席专家，主要研究方向为食品安全管理与农业经济。
"}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:农户安全施用农药的意向表达及行为逻辑研究——基于Fishbein模型和五省986个农户的微观调查数据,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:农户安全施用农药的意向表达及行为逻辑研究——基于Fishbein模型和五省986个农户的微观调查数据,_RowNo:9开放经济条件下，金融风险的传染性使得各国市场不再是孤立封闭的，金融市场的依赖性加剧。基于亚洲区域经济体金融合作的现实及其重要性，本文研究了中日韩货币的波动性与区域联动机制，并检验了货币政策对外汇市场的干预效应。实证结果表明，中日韩三国货币的波动性存在一定差异，其中日元和韩元的波动受金融危机冲击较大。单独的货币政策干预来看，只有中国对外汇市场的干预是有效的，日韩干预效应不显著。本文构建的多元波动模型结果显示，两国汇率之间的相关性在金融危机期间倾向于增加，存在显著的汇率风险传染效应。引入货币政策联合干预以后，结果显示中日和中韩对外汇市场协同波动的联合干预作用有效，而日韩对外汇市场协同波动的干预效果不显著。
,AbstractEN:The infectious of financial risk make the national markets no longer isolated within open economy，financial markets are more dependent. Based on the reality and importance of Asian regional economics financial cooperation，we study the volatility and linkage mechanism within China，Japan and South Korea，and test the intervention effects of monetary policy on foreign exchange market. The empirical result shows that，there are some differences in currency volatility，the yen and won fluctuations suffer greater impact by financial crisis. Only China intervention in the foreign exchange market is effective，and the intervention effect of Japan and South Korea are not significant. We can also see that the correlation between country exchange rates tend to increase during the financial crisis，and the currency risk contagion effect is significant. Considered the joint intervention of monetary policy，the result shows that the intervention on foreign exchange markets between China and Japan，China and South Korea，are effective，while Japan and South Korea not.
,KeyWords:95849,335703,2786,3152,3070,EKeyWords:132299,335705,80591,335704,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204939,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:43:03.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:13,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204940,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"谷家奎":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"谷家奎（1985-），男，汉族，山东省郓城县人，吉林大学数量经济学博士，现就职于中国中投证券博士后科研工作站，研究方向：金融计量分析。
"},"陈守东":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈守东（1955-），男，汉族，天津市蓟县人，吉林大学教授、博士生导师，研究方向：金融与投资。
"}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:区域货币联动与政策干预：中日韩实证分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:区域货币联动与政策干预：中日韩实证分析,_RowNo:10基于经济增长收敛理论思想，本文建立石油能源消费强度与其影响间的微观经济模型，运用1999～2012年省级面板数据，从全国和区域两个层面对中国石油消费强度的收敛机制进行了实证检验。研究认为：全国整体来看，城乡人口结构和交通占比因素导致石油消费强度呈发散趋势，而人均产值、能源结构、产业结构、价格等因素均导致中国石油消费强度整体呈收敛趋势。区域层面研究表明，各区域石油消费强度在向高效低能的收敛方向上存在收敛机制的差异性。
,AbstractEN:Based on the theory of economic growth convergence，this paper establishes the microeconomic model of petroleum energy consumption intensity and its influence，and empirically tests the convergence mechanism of China’s petroleum consumption intensity from the national and regional two layers，by using the provincial panel data from 1999 to 2012.Studies suggest that：overall view of the whole country，the proportion of the urban and rural population structure and transportation industry lead to the divergence of petroleum consumption intensity，while per capita GDP factor，energy structure，industrial structure，price，etc，all contribute to the convergence of China’s petroleum consumption intensity.Regional studies shows that，the regional petroleum consumption intensity has different convergence mechanism on the convergence of high efficiency and low energy direction.
,KeyWords:2786,335706,335707,20839,EKeyWords:335708,335709,335710,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204992,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010734_000_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:43:04.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-02 23:57:22.0,HitCount:9,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204993,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"刘阳":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘阳（1973-），男，黑龙江省大庆市人，东北石油大学副教授，经济学博士，研究方向：能源经济学、中国与独联体国家经贸关系研究。
"}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国石油消费强度收敛机制的区域差异分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-9058-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2016年第7卷 第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国石油消费强度收敛机制的区域差异分析,_RowNo:11本文将2005年国家股权分置改革作为国家改善金融市场的宏观政策纳入回归模型。考虑到反映融资约束程度的指标众多，本文首先使用Logistic回归方法囊括了融资约束的多个影响因素，创建了反映上市公司融资约束程度的单一指标，用以将样本企业的融资约束程度进行量化。其次，构建了反映上市公司投资-现金流敏感度的Panel Data模型。将样本数据分为1999～2004年及2005～2009年两组进行比较分析，观察2005年的股权分置改革是否对企业的融资约束现象有所改善，并研究融资约束与企业投资行为之间的相关关系。研究结果表明，国家股权分置改革确实改善了我国上市公司所面临的融资约束问题。在1999～2004年，由于委托代理因素的影响，融资约束程度与上市公司投资-现金流敏感度呈“U”形相关关系，即在融资约束较低、企业具有充足资金的情况下，管理者可能为追求个人利益进行过度投资，导致企业投资-现金流敏感度较高；在2005～2009年，金融市场秩序的改善减弱了委托代理因素对企业投资的影响，融资约束与我国上市公司投资-现金流敏感度呈正相关关系，支持中外学者研究的主流观点。
,AbstractEN:In this paper，the 2005 annual national Innovation of non-tradable shares is incorporated into the regression mode as Macroeconomic policy that our country improves the financial market. Considering large quantities of indexes reflecting the financing constraints，this paper firstly used the Logistic regression method included multiple influencing factors of financing constraints and created a single index about listed companies’ financing constraints to quantify the sample enterprise financing constraints. Secondly，the paper constructed a Panel Data model about listed company investment-cash flow sensitivity，divided the sample data into 1999-2004 and 2005-2009 year two groups for comparative analysis，observed the 2005 annual innovation of non-tradable shares improving the corporate financing constraints phenomenon or not，and studied the relationship between financing constraints and corporate investment behaviors. The results reveal that the national innovation of non-tradable shares indeed improve the financing constraints our listed companies facing with. In the 1999-2004 year range，due to the principal-agent factors’ influences，listed company financing constraints and investment-cash flow sensitivity showed “U”-type relationship，namely，managers may invest excessively for the pursuit of personal interests lead to high enterprise investment-cash flow sensitivity when financing constraints is low and the enterprise has sufficient funds；In 2005-2009 year range，the improvement of financial market weaken the principal-agent factors’ influences on enterprises investment，and financing constraints and the listed company investment-cash flow sensitivity in our country is positively related，supporting the mainstream viewpoint of domestic and foreign scholar studies.
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