伊朗发展报告（2015～2016）

本书是我们撰写的第一本伊朗发展报告，由序言、总报告、专题篇、外交篇、中伊关系篇及附录、后记七个部分组成。序言部分由中国驻伊朗前任大使刘振堂先生撰写。第二部分为总报告，包括一篇论文，概括了2015年伊朗的社会、政治、经济演变特点。第三部分为专题篇，包括七篇论文，分别阐述了鲁哈尼上台以来伊朗的内外政策、2015年伊朗经济的发展特征、伊朗能源工业和农业的现状及其发展趋势、伊朗的人口发展历程与人口政策的演变，特别是解读了后伊核危机时代的国际国内形势特征、面临的主要问题，还分析了霍梅尼的人生历程和政治哲学，以期从理论上解读伊朗政治体制的特点。总体来看，2015年7月14日达成的伊核协议提高了伊朗国内人民对经济发展的自信心，过高估计了伊朗的招商引资能力，过高估计了伊朗经济的发展前景，但伊核协议的达成确实促进了伊朗经济形势的慢慢好转。第四部分为外交篇，首先对鲁哈尼执政以来的美伊关系进行了系统的梳理和总结，分析了伊朗与波斯湾沿岸国家的关系，也首次考察了美籍伊朗人的政治参与历程。总体来看，2015年7月14日之后，伊朗的国际处境明显好转，国际空间明显扩大，对外政策更加务实、灵活。第五部分是中伊关系篇。在“一带一路”倡议中，伊朗是核心国家，中国应该了解伊朗对“一带一路”倡议的认知，了解当下伊朗国家发展的需要，强调以中伊友好关系来推动“一带一路”倡议的落实。本报告回顾了2015年中伊政治关系取得的新进展，分析了中国在伊核问题解决中所起到的特殊作用，也分析了中伊关系面临的挑战，特别是具体解读了伊朗中资企业所面临的诸多风险，并就管控风险提出了切实可行的建议；还对中伊两国的人文外交路径进行了深入探索，总结了中伊两国在教育、传媒、影视、文化、学术、旅游等诸多领域的交流与合作；同时伊朗年轻的汉学专家孟娜女士简要概括了2015年伊朗的汉语教学和汉学研究状况。第六部分是附录，收录了2015年伊朗的大事记和中伊关系大事记。第七部分后记中说明了本书写作的相关背景。

总之，本报告尽最大可能采用最新、最全的汉语、英语和波斯语资料，运用定量和定性相结合的研究方法，对伊朗进行了立体的、全方位的、多角度的深入探析，对2015年伊朗的政局走向、经济发展、社会形态与对外关系进行了解读与判断。中伊关系是本报告研究的重点，从宏观和微观层次深入剖析了中伊关系的几乎所有领域，阐明了中伊关系面临的历史机遇和具体挑战。相信本报告将为全面认识伊朗的国情提供重要参考，也为我国加强中伊交流与合作、深化中伊传统友谊提供一定的决策依据和研究支撑。

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总报告

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专题篇

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外交篇

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中伊关系篇

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附录

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书名：	伊朗发展报告（2015～2016）
英文名：	ANNUAL REPORT ON RESEARCH OF IRAN （2015～2016）
作者：	张立明冀开运陆瑾
I S B N：	978-7-5097-9730-3
丛书名：	伊朗蓝皮书订阅
关键词：	伊朗研究报告政治外交社会 2015～2016
出版日期：	2016-10-01