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中国货币政策目标的选择

书 名: 中国货币政策目标的选择
英 文 名: The Choice of Monetary Policy Targets in China
作 者: 李琼
I S B N: 978-7-5097-0903-0
关 键 词:  货币政策 泰勒规则 经济转轨 金融 通货膨胀
出版日期: 2009-07-01

中文摘要

货币政策目标是单一制还是多元制?货币政策是有规则可循还是相机抉择?货币政策的实施应该遵循哪些行为规则、货币数量规则、利率规则还是通货膨胀目标制?无论是学术界还是政策界,这三大问题在理论和实践上的重要意义都不言而喻。

本文通过对货币政策规则理论的分析,根据各国货币政策规则的实践经验,基于中国货币政策规则的理论模型,采取历史分析与计量模型相结合的实证分析方法,试图构建中国货币政策规则框架下的货币政策目标体系。

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CommonID:DIR_17980353,ID:7980353,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:211207,name:第一章 引言,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:Chapter 1 Introduction,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7980343,AbstractCH:

本著研究目标是运用新规范宏观经济学的分析方法,研究在货币政策规则框架下中国货币政策目标的选择问题。主要探讨在规则的货币政策框架下,中央银行在采取相机抉择货币政策时中国最优的货币政策目标以及这些目标之间的关系。主要采取理论模型并结合中国的实际数据进行理论模型建构和实证检验。

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货币政策规则有广义和狭义之分,广义的货币政策规则包括货币政策理论与实践的基本原则,而狭义的货币政策规则,是指货币政策如何根据经济运行的变化而调整货币政策的一般要求。简单的规则原理就是将工具变量根据目标变量进行调整。货币政策规则的主要形式有货币数量规则、利率规则、基础货币—名义收入目标规则、通货膨胀目标规则以及其他货币政策规则。

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货币政策最终目标有多元目标和单一目标的选择,传统的货币政策最终目标是多元的,即经济增长、充分就业、物价稳定和国际收支平衡四种主要目标并存。实践表明,多目标制对于中国来讲不是一个好的货币政策目标制度,货币政策应该坚持稳定物价的单一目标。货币政策目标可以分为增长率目标和增长水平目标,货币政策目标最好选择增长率型目标,而不是增长水平型目标。

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通过规范货币供给量的方式来稳定宏观经济波动的政策操作程序或原则被称为货币数量规则。货币数量规则历经古典的货币数量论即费雪方程式、剑桥方程式再到弗里德曼的现代货币数量论的历史演变。货币数量的最初规则,认为无论经济出现什么情况,美联储都应该保持固定的货币增长率,以实现宏观经济稳定。随着货币主义的不断丰富和扩展,货币数量规则最终形成一条动态调整的货币数量钉住规则,即货币数量规则应该是根据实际经济变量的持久性变化可预测的方式确定的适应性调整的货币数量调整规则,因而不再是固定不变的。

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通过对中国利率结构体系以及利率市场化的研究,结合泰勒规则在中国的实证分析,本章得出结论表明,中国人民银行应该采取以通货膨胀为最终目标的单一目标制度或以通货膨胀为主的最终目标制度,参考带有利率平滑机制的泰勒规则,渐进式放开利率管制,考虑在将来逐步将短期利率纳入货币政策的中介目标体系,将银行间同业拆借利率或国债回购利率作为治理通货膨胀的重要政策工具。

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通货膨胀目标制是指中央银行直接以通货膨胀率作为货币政策操作的名义锚,并以此规划货币政策操作的货币政策制度。通货膨胀目标规则的兴起是源于对货币数量规则、利率规则以及其他货币政策规则的一种积极扬弃。由于货币需求函数的不稳定性,导致货币供给与政策目标之间相关性大为削弱,中介目标与最终目标的不确定性导致许多国家的货币当局转而直接钉住最终目标。

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运用货币政策规则来构建中国货币政策目标体系是一个复杂和庞大的工程。本文对货币数量规则、利率规则以及通货膨胀目标规则做了初步尝试性研究,更多复杂而饶有趣味的问题还有待进一步深入研究。

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