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亚太地区发展报告(2017)

书 名: 亚太地区发展报告(2017)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF ASIA-PACIFIC (2017)
作 者: 李向阳
I S B N: 978-7-5201-0554-5
丛 书 名: 亚太蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  经济发展 政治 美国对外政策 研究报告 亚太地区 2017
出版日期: 2017-05-01

中文摘要

特朗普当选美国总统对中国周边环境、亚太乃至全球格局的影响将是前所未有的。迄今为止,特朗普政府的亚洲政策、全球政策尚未成型,国内外对其前景的判断存在巨大的分歧。如何对特朗普政府的亚洲政策做出判断是本年度报告的核心任务,不能仅仅用“不确定性”做借口来回避这一问题。我们认为,无论是特朗普的内政还是外交政策都有其民意基础和理论支撑。为此,我们试图从其价值理念入手探讨特朗普政府亚洲政策的走向。以犹太—基督文明为基础的开明资本主义作为价值理念的核心,这就决定了特朗普政府的对外政策寻求的不是以往政府更迭意义上的政策调整,而是一场根本性的改革。在这种改革中,其对外政策会奉行下述目标:白人至上的种族主义、国家安全、全球霸主地位及美国同盟体系。与此相对应,一些传统的目标则可能被放弃,如,以多边主义和区域主义为代表的经济全球化、以意识形态划界的原则、全球公共产品的提供者与美国的(短期)国家形象,等等。表现在亚洲政策上可能会呈现出下述特征:以遏制中国为目标制定其亚洲政策,以美日同盟为核心构建新型亚洲同盟体系,以双边贸易协定替代TPP。

在这种政策导向下,现有的亚洲安全格局将可能面临重大调整:作为亚洲同盟体系基础的美日同盟,其牢固程度取决于本地区的大国博弈关系;日本为维护美日同盟将要付出更多的努力和更大的代价;中美博弈将决定美国亚洲政策的导向与实施路径;特朗普政府放弃全球公共产品提供者的角色可能会促使亚洲国家建立自己的地区安全架构。

受特朗普政府反全球化政策导向的影响,亚洲区域经济合作格局可能会发生一系列变化。对此,我们的判断是,没有美国的TPP将可能被“搁置”起来;区域全面经济伙伴关系协定谈判进程会加快,但它很难成为亚洲多数国家所认同的区域经济一体化模板;本地区发达经济体会通过双边协定强化与美国的经济合作;“一带一路”将为亚洲提供一种新型的区域经济合作模式。

从长期来看,以“美国优先”为代表的保护主义不仅可能会冲击亚洲地区现有的全球价值链,而且有可能冲击亚洲国家的出口导向型发展模式。因此,亚洲国家必须重新审视现有的发展模式与合作模式。

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