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渐进与突破

书 名: 渐进与突破
英 文 名: ADVANCE AND BREAKTHROUGH
作 者: 王绍章
I S B N: 978-7-5097-7869-2
丛 书 名: 东北亚研究丛书 订阅
关 键 词:  油气开发 苏俄工业 石油外交 萨哈林岛
出版日期: 2017-06-01

中文摘要

俄罗斯远东联邦区发展油气产业的支点在萨哈林地区,而其“主角”是萨哈林岛。萨哈林岛引人注目之处不仅在于其悠久的油气开发历史,而且在于其油气开发现状的日新月异。

本书在借鉴国内外已有成果的基础上,将有关萨哈林岛油气开发的历史和现实碎片置于一个分析框架之中,而这个框架就是俄罗斯资源战略和地缘战略的组合。

本书准备解决以下三个问题。

第一,以石油工业产业链的形成为线索,勾勒出萨哈林岛百年油气开发的基本轮廓。从时间上看,它跨越了俄罗斯的三个不同历史时期;从空间上看,它经历了从萨哈林岛陆上向萨哈林岛大陆架延伸的空间变化;从经营内容上看,它先是经营石油,之后又增加了天然气业务;从参与方看,国内、国际两股力量的互动贯穿其间。

第二,作为俄罗斯远东油气开发的试验场,萨哈林岛先后实施过租让、产品分成等特殊政策。这些政策都是从与西方的合作起步,其间经历过热与紧缩交替的时期,直至由俄罗斯主导萨哈林岛的油气开发。其背后反映了俄罗斯的对外战略考虑,大致以冷战结束为界,此前,俄罗斯侧重于地缘政治利益,之后,俄罗斯则兼顾经济利益,两者从另一个侧面展示了俄罗斯开发萨哈林岛油气的政治动因:石油开发为俄罗斯在外交中实施大国制衡战略提供了机会,油气并举开发则为俄罗斯推行外交多元化提供了筹码。它输出的是资源,换回的是时间,留给当地的是完善的基础设施。这就是俄罗斯的退一步、进两步。

第三,萨哈林岛为俄罗斯远东油气开发构筑了弹性空间。这个弹性空间的构建是从一个点开始的,其中,奥哈市的成长见证了北萨哈林岛陆上油气开发的成就。连点成线的进程与之并行,萨哈林岛同哈巴罗夫斯克、共青城在石油领域形成了开采与加工的合作关系。南萨哈林斯克的崛起更多地与萨哈林岛大陆架的开发有关。海、陆开发互为补充,构建了萨哈林岛石油经济的骨架,再加上千岛群岛的能源资源潜力,都预示着萨哈林州将变成一个碳化氢社会。同时,油气开发收益也由此在俄罗斯远东扩散,而扩散的主要纽带便是天然气化,管道、铁路和海洋运输继续为此提供支持。

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