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2014年世界经济形势分析与预测

书 名: 2014年世界经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名: WORLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST (2014)
作 者: 王洛林 张宇燕 孙杰
I S B N: 978-7-5097-5318-7
丛 书 名: 世界经济黄皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  世界经济形势 经济预测 经济体 发达经济体
出版日期: 2014-01-01

中文摘要

2013年的世界经济依然行进在坎坷复苏的道路上。发达经济体经济复苏继续巩固,美国和日本经济进入低速增长通道,欧元区结束衰退并呈复苏迹象。新兴市场与发展中经济体步入结构调整进程中,伴随着大宗商品价格低迷、外需下降以及发达经济体量化宽松政策“退出”预期提升等因素,经济增长进一步放缓。

回顾2013年世界经济的总体形势,可以看出2013年世界经济呈现诸多新的特点,主要有以下几个方面:美国货币政策调整蓄势待发但其影响已经显现;欧洲一体化在曲折中继续前行;日本经济在“安倍经济学”的刺激下回升明显;发达经济体央行合作日趋密切且职能发生变化;新兴市场经济体对外资异动的脆弱性凸显;大宗商品价格整体下滑但能源价格基本稳定;技术突破使能源革命面临新的选择;区域自由贸易区谈判方兴未艾;中国更加积极地参与全球经济治理。随着复苏的巩固,全球就业市场不断改进,失业率有所回落,物价低稳运行,财政平衡状况继续改善,但贸易增长仍然缺乏强有力的支撑,对外直接投资增长亦明显乏力,部分发达经济体公共债务再攀新高。

2014年,世界经济增长仍面临如下不确定因素:一旦美国开始实施退出量化宽松的政策,就意味着全球风险资产的重新定价,导致资本流动加剧,引起资产价格、汇率和国际收支的变动,从而引发全球经济的动荡;如果美国两党不能就长期的债务上限问题达成协议,可能会对包括美国经济在内的世界经济带来负面影响;欧元区债务危机仍存在进一步恶化的可能性,其对经济的负面作用仍不可低估;“安倍经济学”最终效果如何仍是一个大问号;一些新兴市场经济体将面临经济硬着陆的风险;大宗商品价格总体企稳,但仍会在一定时期和一定条件下出现波动;TPP谈判将会对亚太地区乃至全球贸易格局产生深远影响,而跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴协定(TTIP)谈判、区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)谈判等区域贸易谈判也会成为影响双边和多边经贸关系的因素;中国仍将是引领全球经济增长的主要引擎之一。

预计2014年全球经济仍将维持中低速增长,略高于2013年的水平。

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