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中国农村经济形势分析与预测(2017~2018)

书 名: 中国农村经济形势分析与预测(2017~2018)
英 文 名: ANALYSIS AND FORECAST ON CHINA’S RURAL ECONOMY (2017-2018)
作 者:  魏后凯黄秉信 李国祥 孙同全 刘长全
I S B N: 978-7-5201-2539-0
丛 书 名: 农村绿皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  农村经济发展 供给侧结构性改革 经济分析 经济预测 中国
出版日期: 2018-04-01

中文摘要

2017年,中国深化农业供给侧结构性改革,促进农业结构优化和发展方式转绿,培育农村发展新动能,成效显著。农产品质量安全状况继续改善,化肥农药用量增长势头得到扼制,农业可持续发展有效推进,新型农业经营主体进一步发展壮大,种植业适度规模经营占比达40%,农村一二三产业融合发展典型持续涌现,农村集体产权制度改革稳步推进,玉米等粮食收储制度和价格形成机制改革成效超预期。

农业农村经济发展加快,与国民经济的关系正在发生深刻变化。2017年,第一产业增加值65468亿元,按可比价格计算实际增长3.9%,比上年加快0.6个百分点;第一产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重下降到7.9%,比上年降低0.7个百分点。乡村社会消费品零售额达到51972亿元,比上年增长11.8%,在全社会消费品零售额中所占比重上升到14.2%;全社会第一产业固定资产投资(不含农户)为20892亿元,比上年增长11.8%,明显高于其他产业。

主要农产品普遍增产,结构进一步优化。2017年,粮食总产量61791万吨,比上年增产0.3%。其中,稻谷小麦稳定增产,玉米产量21589万吨,比上年减产1.7%;大豆产量1455万吨,比上年增产12.4%。棉花总产量549万吨,比上年增产3.5%;棉花继续向新疆优势产区集中,新疆棉花产量408万吨,比上年增产13.6%;新疆棉花产量占全国棉花产量的比重上升到74.4%,比上年提高6.5个百分点。油料产量3732万吨,比上年增产2.8%。糖料产量12556万吨,比上年增产1.7%。猪牛羊禽肉产量8431万吨,比上年增长0.9%。养猪大县的产量占全国总产量的80%,生猪养殖由南方水网地区向玉米生产大省和环境容量大地区转移基本到位。水产品产量6938万吨,比上年增长0.5%。其中,养殖水产品产量5281万吨,比上年增长2.7%;捕捞水产品产量1656万吨,比上年下降5.8%。

农产品进出口规模继续扩大,贸易救济措施效应显现。2017年,农产品进出口总额2013.9亿美元,比上年增长9.1%。其中,农产品进口1258.6亿美元,比上年增长12.8%。农产品国际贸易逆差503.3亿美元,比上年增长30.4%。进口谷物2560.1万吨,比上年增长16.7%。进口大豆9553万吨,比上年增长13.8%。中国对进口玉米酒糟实施反倾销反补贴措施,2017年进口玉米酒糟(DDGs)39.1万吨,比上年下降87.3%。中国对进口食糖产品实施保障措施,2017年进口食糖229.0万吨,比上年下降25.2%。

农产品和食品价格总体下跌,但不同农产品和食品在不同时段的价格走势呈现分化态势。2017年,农产品生产者价格总体比上年下降3.5%,其中生猪生产者价格比上年下跌14.0%,禽蛋生产者价格下跌7.2%。但是,粮食生产者价格比上年上涨0.1%,其中小麦和稻谷分别比上年上涨4.4%和0.7%。食品消费价格比上年下降1.4%。到2017年末,多数农产品和食品价格下跌幅度缩小或者转变为上涨态势。

农民收入呈现加快增长态势,工资性收入增加贡献最大。2017年,农民人均可支配收入13432元,比2016年名义增长8.6%,名义增速比上年加快0.4个百分点;实际增长7.3%,实际增速比上年加快1.1个百分点。农民工资性收入增长贡献最大。2017年,农民人均工资性收入5498元,比上年名义增长9.5%,增速比上年加快0.3个百分点;农民人均工资性收入增加对可支配收入增加的贡献率为44.6%,在可支配收入中的比重上升到40.9%。城乡居民收入差距进一步缩小。2017年,城乡居民人均收入倍差缩小到2.71,比上年下降0.01。但是,城乡居民收入差距和农村内部居民收入差距较大问题仍然突出。2017年城乡居民收入绝对水平差额扩大到近2.3万元,差额比上年增加1700多元;农村居民内部高低收入组人均可支配收入之比扩大到9.48∶1,这一比率比2016年上升了0.02。

展望2018年,尽管存在一些不确定性因素和困难,但是,随着乡村振兴战略的推进,中国农业农村经济运行和发展有望进一步积极向好。估计农业保持稳定增长态势,第一产业增加值达到6.8万亿元,比上年实际增长3%,质量兴农绿色兴农有效推进;农民消费支出继续较快增长,乡村社会消费品零售额达到5.8万亿元,比上年增长近12%;粮食总产量可能超过6.2亿吨,比上年增产约1%;其他主要农产品产量继续增长,农产品供给保持宽松状况,农产品价格基本稳定,总体会有小幅度上涨;农民收入增长将进一步加快,农民人均可支配收入可望接近1.5万元,比上年实际增长7.7%,农民收入增速继续保持快于城镇居民的态势,城乡居民人均收入倍差将缩小到2.68,比上年下降0.03。

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