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| 书 名： | 2018年中国经济前景分析 | ||||
| 英 文 名： | ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY （2018） | ||||
| 作 者： | 李扬 李平 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5201-2659-5 | ||||
| 丛 书 名： | 经济蓝皮书春季号 订阅 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 中国经济 经济预测 经济发展趋势 研究报告 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2018-05-01 | ||||
中文摘要
2018年，在世界经济总体复苏、“逆全球化”思潮和贸易保护主义倾向抬头、发达经济体政策外溢效应变数和不确定性因素增加的国际背景下，虽然面临国内产能过剩、经济增长内生动力不足、金融风险不断积聚等诸多困难，但是我国经济总体保持平稳较快增长，经济结构继续优化，就业基本保持稳定。
预计2018年中国经济增长6.7%左右，增速比上年略微回落0.2个百分点，实现年初预期6.5%的经济增长目标，继续保持在经济增长的合理区间，主要考虑是：供给侧主要因素的作用持续减弱，潜在GDP增速下滑；需求侧的全球贸易保护主义显著抬头，内部需求结构分化；在财政收入增速减缓和政府债务管理制度逐渐规范的情况下，地方政府的基础设施投资冲动得到有效约束；投资收益率持续下降、国内被动加息预期、投资对经济增长的拉动效应不断减弱等因素，使得民间和外商固定资产投资意愿有所减弱；消费增速总体保持平稳小幅下滑趋势，过高的房地产价格对整体消费长期产生不利影响。
预计2018年第三产业增加值占比继续提高，固定资产投资增速小幅回落，消费增速总体平稳，进出口增速下降，贸易顺差基本稳定，CPI与PPI背离的剪刀差进一步缩小，居民收入稳定增长。预计2018年居民消费价格上涨1.9%，工业品出厂价格上涨3.4%。
总而言之，2018年，我国经济将在新常态下运行在合理区间，结构调整取得积极进展，就业、物价保持基本稳定，中国经济不会发生硬着陆。
2018年，从政策上要优化财政支出结构，提升经济发展质量和效益；推进税制改革，防范和化解地方财政风险；完善货币政策和宏观审慎监管政策双支柱框架，促进稳定流动性和防范风险的有效平衡。
文章列表
2018年，在世界经济总体复苏、“逆全球化”思潮和贸易保护主义抬头、发达经济体政策外溢效应变数和不确定性因素增加的国际背景下，虽然面临国内产能过剩、经济增长内生动力不足、金融风险不断积聚等诸多困难，但是我国经济总体依然保持平稳较快增长，经济结构继续优化，就业基本保持稳定。
预计2018年中国经济增长6.7%左右，增速比上年略微回落0.2个百分点，实现年初预期6.5%的经济增长目标，继续保持在经济增长的合理区间，主要考虑是：供给侧主要因素的作用持续减弱，潜在GDP增速下滑；需求侧的全球贸易保护主义显著抬头，内部需求结构分化；在财政收入增速减缓和政府债务管理制度逐渐规范的情况下，地方政府的基础设施投资冲动得到有效约束；投资收益率持续下降、国内被动加息预期、投资对经济增长的拉动效应不断减弱等因素，使得民间和外商固定资产投资意愿有所减弱；消费增速总体保持平稳小幅下滑趋势，过高的房地产价格对整体消费长期产生不利影响。
预计2018年第三产业增加值占比继续提高，固定资产投资增速小幅回落，消费增速总体平稳，进出口增速下降，贸易顺差基本稳定，CPI与PPI背离的剪刀差进一步缩小，居民收入稳定增长。预计2018年居民消费价格上涨1.9%，工业品出厂价格上涨3.4%。
总而言之，2018年，我国经济将在新常态下运行在合理区间，结构调整取得积极进展，就业、物价保持基本稳定，中国经济不会发生硬着陆。
2018年，从政策上要优化财政支出结构，提升经济发展质量和效益；推进税制改革，防范和化解地方财政风险；完善货币政策和宏观审慎监管政策双支柱框架，促进稳定流动性和防范风险的有效平衡。
,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:5194,4402,31992,EKeyWords:5295,81567,32001,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9616510,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180501X20183593001_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-05-15 17:34:08.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 16:07:35.0,HitCount:162,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9616512,DownCount:39,AuthorInfos:{"\u201C中国经济形势分析与预测\u201D课题组":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"课题总负责人：李扬；执行负责人：李平；执笔人：李平、娄峰、樊明太、万相昱、张涛、李文军、胡洁；参加起草讨论的还有张延群、蒋金荷、刘强、冯烽、王恰、程远、胡安俊、王喜峰等。
"}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国经济形势分析与预测——2018年春季报告,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国经济形势分析与预测——2018年春季报告,_RowNo:4随着农业供给侧结构性改革的深入推进，2017年中国农业农村经济呈现良好发展态势。第一产业增加值增速回升，对经济增长贡献率提高。农业投资结构不断优化，民间投资主导地位强化。粮食生产再获大丰收，并且实现了小幅增产，种植结构优化更加突出。农村脱贫攻坚战取得显著成果，全国农村贫困人口和贫困发生率持续下降，城乡收入差距继续缩小，农村居民人均消费支出保持平稳增长。农产品价格走势以平稳或下跌为主，农产品市场运行总体平稳。总体上看，中国当前农业农村发展势头较好，但是阻碍农业高质量发展的各种矛盾尚存。粮食安全仍面临挑战，供需结构性矛盾还很突出，农业资源环境问题严峻，农产品国际竞争力较弱，城乡发展不平衡问题严峻。为此，政府要把握粮食安全新的阶段性特征，解决影响粮食安全的深层次矛盾，加快推进农业绿色发展和农村人居环境整治，加快推进质量兴农，加快培育农业农村发展新动能，为农民增收注入更多活力。
,AbstractEN:With the further advancement of structural reforms on the supply side of agriculture，China’s agricultural and rural economy has shown a good momentum of development in 2017. The growth rate of the value-added of the primary industry has increased and contributed more to economic growth. The investment structure of agriculture has been continuously optimized，and the dominant position of private investment has been strengthened. The grain production has gained a large harvest with a small increase，and the optimization of planting structure has become more prominent. Remarkable results have been achieved in the rural poverty alleviation，and the incidence of poverty and poverty in rural areas has been decreasing continuously. The income gap between urban and rural areas has continued to shrink，and the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents has maintained a steady growth. The trend of agricultural product prices was mainly stable or declining，and the agricultural product market was generally stable. Overall，China’s current agricultural and rural development tendency is better，but the various conflicts that hinder the high-quality development of agriculture still exist. Food security is still facing challenges. The structural contradiction between supply and demand is still very prominent. The agricultural resources and environmental issues are severe，and the international competitiveness of agricultural products is weak. The imbalance between urban and rural development is severe. Therefore，the government should grasp the characteristics of food security in new phase，address the deep-seated conflicts that affect food security，accelerate the green development of agriculture and the improvement of rural human living environment，accelerate the promotion of quality agriculture，speed up the cultivation of new dynamic in the agricultural and rural development to increase income for farmers.
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"},"张丽娟":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张丽娟，中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员。
"},"Wei Houkai":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Lijuan":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2017年中国农业农村发展态势及政策建议,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2017年中国农业农村发展态势及政策建议,_RowNo:52017年，中国工业运行呈现高质量发展趋势特征，主要表现在工业行业结构继续迈向高端，工业投资增速趋稳，结构持续优化，区域经济结构日趋协调，工业企业利润保持较高增速。但中国正处于新旧动能转换的攻关期，国际环境不稳定，各种不确定因素及其影响加剧，中国工业转向高质量发展仍然面临诸多挑战，短期内工业企业成本攀升。2018年，中国工业经济应在中高端消费、先进制造等领域培育新的增长动力，秉持质量第一、效益优先的原则，着力提高全要素生产率。
,AbstractEN:In 2017，China’s industrial operation showed a trend of high-quality development，which was mainly reflected in the fact that the structure of the industrial sector continued to move toward the high end，the growth rate of industrial investment stabilized，and the structure continued to be optimized. The regional economic structure was increasingly harmonized，and profits of industrial enterprises maintained a relatively high growth rate. However，China is in the critical period of transition between new and old kinetic energy，the international environment is unstable，various uncertainties and impacts have intensified，and China’s industry is still facing many challenges in its shift to high quality development. The cost of industrial enterprises has risen in the short term. In 2018，China’s industrial economy should cultivate new growth drivers in areas such as mid- to high-end consumption and advanced manufacturing，uphold quality first，give priority to efficiency，and strive to increase total factor productivity.
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"},"张航燕":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张航燕，中国社会科学院工业经济研究所助理研究员。
"},"Huang Qunhui":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Hangyan":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:转向高质量发展的中国工业经济——2017年运行特征与未来政策建议,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:转向高质量发展的中国工业经济——2017年运行特征与未来政策建议,_RowNo:6从周期特征来看，经济“L”型触底与金融周期下半场叠加，货币政策框架相应变化。货币政策锚体现为“经济稳定”“金融稳定”“货币稳定”三者的权衡，工具上更加注重宏观审慎政策的运用。2018年，我国货币政策难以脱离全球同步收紧的大环境，但外部掣肘减弱，有更多空间着眼“对内”。“上调公开市场操作利率”和“定向降准”政策组合将更有利于服务高质量发展主线；加强与微观审慎政策协调配合，推进宏观审慎监管框架向纵深处落地，防控金融风险将贯穿于2018～2020年；2018～2019年两年要重点关注通胀及预期上行。
,AbstractEN:From the perspective of the cycle characteristics，the economic “L” type touches the bottom with the second half of the financial cycle，and the monetary policy framework changes accordingly. The anchor of monetary policy is the balance of “economic stability”，“financial stability” and “monetary stability”，and the use of macro prudential policy is paid more attention by tools. In 2018，China’s monetary policy is difficult from the global tightening environment，but the external constraints weaken，with more space to focus”. The “up-regulated open market operating interest rate” and “Orienteering” policy combination will be more conducive to the service of high quality development；strengthen the coordination with the micro prudential policy，push forward the macro prudential regulatory framework to the depth，the prevention and control of financial risks will run through 2018-2020 years；the core attention to inflation and the expected uplink in the next two years.
,KeyWords:335685,5661,34669,336156,EKeyWords:335689,5664,409889,409890,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9616522,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180501X20183593001_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-05-15 17:34:09.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 16:07:35.0,HitCount:73,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9616524,DownCount:34,AuthorInfos:{"何德旭":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"何德旭，中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长，研究员，博士生导师。
"},"张捷":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张捷，国泰君安研究所宏观分析师。
"},"He Dexu":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Jie":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:金融周期下的中国货币政策展望：环境、挑战与选择,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:金融周期下的中国货币政策展望：环境、挑战与选择,_RowNo:7中国特色社会主义进入新时代，一个重要特征就是中国经济由高速增长转向高质量发展阶段；经济发展的转型，需要绿色创新，通过供给侧结构性改革，建设美丽中国。绿色是一个外在的表观，展现的则是绿色创新的绩效、经济系统的健康稳定、民生福祉的整体提升；其内在的动因在于生态文明建设思想所支撑和提升的绿色发展理念。绿色法治规范和激励了绿色发展的市场力量，形成了绿色发展范式。中国的绿色智慧，也在贡献和引领世界的可持续转型。本文通过对中国绿色创新发展的实践、政策和理念的梳理和分析，表明绿色发展理念在改变中国，富强民主文明的中国将更加和谐美丽。
,AbstractEN:Socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era. An important feature is the high speed growth of China’s economy to the stage of high quality development；the transformation of economic development requires green innovation，and the construction of beautiful China through the structural reform of the supply side. Green is an external view，which shows the performance of green innovation，the health and stability of the economic system，and the overall improvement of the well-being of the people. The intrinsic motivation lies in the green development concept supported and promoted by the idea of ecological civilization construction. Green rule of law regulate and motivate the market power of green development，and form a green development paradigm. China’s green wisdom is also contributing to and leading the sustainable transformation of the world. Through the analysis of the practice，policy and concept of green innovation and development in China，this paper shows that the concept of green development in China will be more harmonious and beautiful in China.
,KeyWords:57916,20799,202023,EKeyWords:59362,23754,388813,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9616525,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180501X20183593001_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-05-15 17:34:10.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 16:07:35.0,HitCount:69,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9616527,DownCount:37,AuthorInfos:{"潘家华":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"潘家华，中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所所长，研究员，博士生导师。
"},"Pan Jiahua":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:绿色创新，建设美丽中国,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:绿色创新，建设美丽中国,_RowNo:8本报告利用合成指数和预警信号系统等计量经济方法对我国经济周期波动态势进行了监测和预测，结论如下：2000年以来，我国宏观经济增长率第5轮景气循环的谷为2015年11月，随后经济景气波动性回升，并于2017年4月达到峰值，随后经济景气进入新一轮增长率周期波动的下降期，到2017年12月，经济景气已经连续小幅下降了8个月；基于先行指数的信息，预计2018年我国经济增长将处于平稳回落状态。考虑到当前全球经济回暖的不确定性以及国内供给侧结构性改革等因素的影响，预测2018年全年GDP实际增长率将为6.6%左右；由于物价增长周期波动滞后于经济增长周期波动，加之PPI大幅上升对CPI的传导作用，预计2018年CPI或将缓慢上升，但物价涨幅仍能控制在3%以内。
,AbstractEN:This report uses econometric methods，such as composite index and early warning signal system to monitor and predict China’s economic fluctuation，and gets the following conclusions：Since 2000，the fifth growth rate cyclein China reached its trough in November 2015，and then recovered and reached its peakin April 2017. After that，the economic climate entered the decline stage of a new growth rate cycle and lasted for 8 months until December 2017. Based on the information of the leading index，China’s economic growth is expected to be in a steady decline state in 2018. Considering the uncertainties of the current global economic recovery and supply-side structural reform，the real GDP growth rate of 2018 will fluctuate around 6.6%. Since the price growth cycle lags economic growth cycle as well as therapid increase in PPI is conductive to CPI，CPI is expected to rise slowly in 2018 which can be controlled within 3%.
,KeyWords:409891,36355,128956,EKeyWords:409892,53213,217528,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9616528,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180501X20183593001_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-05-15 17:34:10.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 16:07:35.0,HitCount:100,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9616530,DownCount:39,AuthorInfos:{"范晓非":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"范晓非，经济学博士，东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院助理研究员。
"},"张同斌":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"张同斌，经济学博士，东北财经大学经济学院副教授，东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心副主任。
"},"王金明":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王金明，经济学博士，吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授，博士生导师，吉林大学商学院数量经济系副主任。
"},"高铁梅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"高铁梅，东北财经大学经济学院教授，博士生导师。
"},"Fan Xiaofei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Tongbin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Jinming":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Gao Tiemei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2018年中国宏观经济波动及走势分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2018年中国宏观经济波动及走势分析与预测,_RowNo:9系统性金融风险是“关键性风险因素的积聚扩散过程及其造成的全局性金融危机的可能性”。本文基于包含关键性风险因素的指标体系合成FCI，预测显示，2018年中国金融状况将呈下行态势，短期内仍存在发生局部系统性金融风险的可能。房地产市场风险具有显著系统重要性，对金融杠杆与资产价格泡沫影响显著，同时冲击经济增长及其趋势周期成分，因此，房地产市场的稳定对于金融风险治理、经济短期“稳增长”与长期“调结构”均具有重要意义。产能过剩风险、商业银行不良贷款风险与政府债务风险对金融风险新特征与经济增长的影响存在显著差异性与相对有限的系统重要性。金融冲击会在抑制经济增长长期趋势的同时增加长期增长的不确定性。
,AbstractEN:Systemic financial risk is that “the accumulation and diffusion process of key risk factors and the possibility of global financial crisis caused by key risk factors”. Based on the index system containing key risk factors，we synthesize FCI. The prediction shows that China financial conditions will show a downward trend in 2018，and there’s a possibility that local systemic financial risk taking place. The real estate market risk has significant systematic importance，which not only has a significant impact on financial leverage and asset price bubbles，but also impacts on economic growth and its trend and cycle components，so the stability of the real estate market is of great significance for financial risk governance，economic short-term “steady growth” and long-term “adjustment structure”. There’s a significant difference and relatively limited systematic importance in the influence of the risk of overcapacity，commercial banks’ non-performing loans and government debt on the new characteristics of financial risks. Financial shocks will inhibit the long-term trend of economic growth while increasing the uncertainty of long-term growth.
,KeyWords:386688,409893,66215,31992,EKeyWords:386689,103646,84384,5295,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9616531,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180501X20183593001_000_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-05-15 17:34:10.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 16:07:35.0,HitCount:92,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9616533,DownCount:37,AuthorInfos:{"陈守东":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈守东，吉林大学教授、博士生导师。
"},"孙彦林":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"孙彦林，吉林大学商学院博士研究生。
"},"Chen Shoudong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Sun Yanlin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2018年中国金融状况分析与展望,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2018年中国金融状况分析与展望,_RowNo:102017年，我国外贸实现恢复性正增长，增速创6年来新高。预计2018年我国对外贸易发展的内外环境将进一步改善，外贸格局更趋多元化、周边化和主动化，外贸发展的质量和效益将显著提升。
,AbstractEN:In 2017，China’s foreign trade achieved a positive recovery and its growth rate hit a new high in six years. It is expected that the external and internal environment for the development of China’s foreign trade in 2018 will be further improved. The pattern of foreign trade will be more diversified，peripheral and initiative，and the quality and efficiency of foreign trade development will be significantly improved.
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"},"刘建颖":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘建颖，经济学博士，商务部研究院副研究员。
"},"Jin Baisong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Jianying":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2018年中国对外贸易形势展望,ISBN:978-7-5201-2659-5,BookTitle:2018年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2018年中国对外贸易形势展望,_RowNo:11
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