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    新一轮债券违约潮特点与金融风险防范

    摘要

    2017年以来的新一轮债券违约规模增速明显超过前两年,且呈现与以往不同的特点:第一,金融去杠杆政策下,对外部融资依赖性较强的民企融资受限,违约占比显著上升;第二,随着去杠杆政策效应从货币收紧到社融增速下降,表外融资收缩加剧债券违约;第三,随着资管新规等政策落地,从银根收紧演化为表外资金收紧,一些流动性较好的优质债券被动抛售;第四,随着市场化进程加快,违约处理机制亦得到进一步完善。2017年债市整体延续熊市,主要受以下因素影响:首先,经济方面受内外双重承压,国内经济增速回升、联储带动全球货币收紧;其次,货币政策稳健“中性”、边际收紧利空债市;再次,监管收紧加剧短期流动性风险,特别是资管新规改变市场机构行为;最后,汇率波动、中美利差走阔进一步推动中债利率上行。2018年上半年,债市收益率整体震荡下行,受到央行降准以及未随美加息等影响,资金面较上年同期边际宽松。2018年又将是企业非金融信用债到期的高峰,如何有序推进市场化进程,将债券违约风险控制在可控范围内,避免爆发系统性金融风险或者是区域性的债务风险,而有利于市场化的长远发展目标将是下一步工作的重中之重。

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    Abstract

    In 2017,there continued to be bear market,mainly affected by the following factors:Firstly,the bond market is under pressure from both inside and outside economy,with domestic growth increased and the federal reserve leading the global monetary tightening;Secondly,monetary policy is turned to be prudent “neutrally” with marginal tightening,which is bad news for bond market;Thirdly,tightening of regulation has amplified the short-term liquidity risks,such as the new regulations of asset management has changed the behavior of market institutions;Finally,with volatility of exchange rate and widening of interest rate differentials of bonds between China and the United States has pushed up bond rates in China. The growth of bond defaults scale of the new trend is much faster than the former two years since 2017,and has new characteristics as follows:firstly,with the financial de-leverage policies,financing of private enterprises which are highly dependent on external financing is restricted,and the proportion of default is significantly increased;Secondly,as the policy effect of financial deleveraging has changed from monetary tightening to a decline in the rate of growth of nongovernmental financing,bond defaults has exacerbated because of the contraction in off-balance-sheet financing;Thirdly,as policies such as the new regulations on asset management have been implemented,the policy effect has turned from marginal tightening of monetary policy to tightening off-balance sheet funds,some high-quality bonds with good liquid have been sold off;Fourthly,With the deepening of the marketization,the bond default disposal mechanism has been improved. In the first half of 2018,the overall bond market yield has fluctuated downward,affected by the central bank’s cut of reserve requirement ratio and not raising interest rates as the federal reserve,and the market capital was relatively loose compared with last year. There would be the peak of the maturity of non-financial credit bonds of enterprises in 2018. How to deepen the marketization process in an orderly manner,and meanwhile to reduce the risk of bond default within a controllable range to avoid the outbreak of systemic financial risk or regional debt risk,and to be good for the long-term development goal of marketization will be the key emphasis of future work.

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    作者简介
    黄胤英:黄胤英,中国社会科学院经济研究所博士后、中国农业银行总行董事会办公室高级政策研究员、中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
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