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    论“一带一路”倡议实施中的地缘环境建设

    摘要

    地缘环境或地缘条件是区域合作、国际合作的重要约束因素。区域一体化与全球化没有也难以消除地缘矛盾和冲突。“一带一路”倡议是中国提出的一个世纪性的宏大的对外合作构想,涉及数十个国家,难免受到错综复杂的地缘因素的影响,其中不乏地缘矛盾与风险的冲击。本文在分析地缘因素与国际合作内在关系逻辑及相关研究成果基础上,通过对“一带一路”倡议面临的地缘风险因素进行考察,提出高度重视、妥善处置“一带一路”倡议引发的外部地缘冲击与“战略反应”关系到“一带一路”倡议能否成功推进,建议对“一带一路”涉及的地缘因素与风险加以全面分析、区别对待、因势利导,以减少摩擦成本和风险,重塑地缘环境,稳健推进以“五通”为基本内容的“一带一路”建设。

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    Abstract

    Geopolitical environment or the geopolitical condition is the important restrictive factor in the regional cooperation and international cooperation.The regional integration and globalization have not eliminated and are difficult to eliminate the geopolitical conflicts and controversies.The Belt and Road Initiative is an overarching architecture for China's external cooperation proposed by China,which involves tens of countries and hence,it will be inevitably affected by the complex geopolitical factors,among them,there's no lack of the shocks from geopolitical conflicts and the risks.Based on the analysis of the logics for the internal relations between geopolitical factors and international cooperation and the related study findings,and through the investigations on the geopolitical risk factors that may be encountered by The Belt and Road Initiative,this paper suggests that we should pay great attentions to and properly handle the external geopolitical shocks triggered by The Belt and Road Initiative and the “strategic response”,as which is related to whether the Belt and the Road Initiative can be successfully promoted.Therefore,with regard to the geopolitical factors and risks involved in The Belt and Road,this paper suggests that we should comprehensively analyze,treat differently,make the best use of the situation,reduce the friction costs and risks,reshape the geopolitical environments,and steadily promote the construction career of The Belt and the Road with five-pronged approach.

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    作者简介
    林跃勤:林跃勤,经济学博士,中国社会科学杂志社国际二部主任,研究员。
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