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    1990~2020年中国30个省(区、市)发展前景评价

    摘要

    本报告从指数、分级和排名三个层面对中国30个省(区、市)1990~2020年31年间经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率、人民生活和环境质量等五个方面的情况进行分析,在此基础上,得出1990~2020年中国30个省(区、市)的发展前景,并基于面向2035年的高质量发展背景,对中国30个省(区、市)发展前景进行评价,得到“八五”至“十三五”时期中国30个省(区、市)发展前景指数、分级及排名变化情况。研究结论如下:中国30个省(区、市)发展前景可分为5级,分别为Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级、Ⅴ级。其中,上海市、北京市、江苏省、浙江省在1990年以来、2000年以来、2010年以来及2009~2017年发展前景均处于Ⅰ级水平,广东省在2018~2020年上升至Ⅰ级水平,而在此期间,北京市则由Ⅰ级水平下滑至Ⅱ级水平。从区域角度看,相对于1990年,2020年,中国东部、西部、中部发展前景变化情况如下:西部地区发展前景的改善情况总体优于东部和中部地区;西部地区人民生活的改善情况也优于东部和中部地区,但东部地区的经济增长、增长潜力、政府效率和环境质量四个方面的改善情况总体优于中部和西部地区。另外,通过对近七年具 <<
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    Abstract

    This report analyzes the economic growth,growth potential,government efficiency,people’s life and environmental quality of 30 provinces,districts,and cities in China from 1990 to 2020 which is composed of index,classification and ranking. On this basis,it introduces the development prospects of 30 provinces,districts,and cities in China from 1990 to 2020. Based on thebackgroundof high-quality development towards 2035,it evaluates the development prospects of 30 provinces,districts,and cities in China,and shows the changes of development prospect index,classification and ranking of 30 provinces,districts,and cities in China from the 8th five year plan to the 13th five year plan. The conclusions are as follows:the development prospects of 30 provinces,districts,and cities in China can be divided into five levels:Level I,level II,level III,level IV and level V. Among them,Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province are at Level I in the average results of 1990~2020,2000~2020,2010~2020 and 2009~2017. Guangdong province rises to level I from 2018 to 2020,while Beijing falls from Level I to level II,during the same period. In the past 30 years,the development prospects of the eastern,western and central part of China have changed as follows from the point of region:the improvement of the development prospects in the western region is generally better than that in the eastern and central regions;the improvement of the people’s livelihood in the western region is also better than that in the eastern and central regions,however,the eastern region is better than the central and western regionsthat comparethe improvement in the economic growth,growth potential,government efficiency and environmental quality. In addition,by comparing the weight changes of specific indicators in the recent seven years,it can be found that the weight of urban unemployment insurance coverage rate is the highest in 2020;the weight of urbanization rate is in the forefrontfrom 2014 to 2020;the weight of urban basic endowment insurance coverage rate is in the forefront during the period 2015~2017,2019 and 2020. The changes of specific indicators that in the top weight rankings can reflect the importance of index of public service,social security and people’s lifesuch as urban unemployment insurance coverage rate,urbanization rate,urban basic endowment insurance coverage ratewhich are related to urbanizationin the process of China’s high-quality development.

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    作者简介
    张自然:张自然,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、博士,主要研究方向为技术进步与经济增长。
    张平:张平,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、博士生导师,主要研究方向为经济增长。
    刘霞辉:刘霞辉,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员、博士生导师,主要研究方向为经济增长。
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