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谢伏瞻
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蔡 昉
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李培林
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    2021年全球复苏的不一致与中国经济的稳中求进——创新转型与深化资本市场...

    摘要

    2020年至2021年上半年,新冠肺炎疫情蔓延状况成为左右全球经济的关键因素。正是疫情蔓延和防控能力的差异导致全球经济复苏的不一致性和全球政策协调的困难。中国经济从2020年下半年开始全面复苏,而发达经济体在2021年的第二季度开始全面复苏。新兴市场国家巴西、印度、俄罗斯等则仍受疫情困扰,复苏进程缓慢。复苏的不一致性导致各国政策与增长目标的差异,发达经济体采用强刺激政策而供给端恢复慢,已经导致大宗商品价格快速上涨和通货膨胀迹象。预计2021年第四季度发达经济体政策会适当降低刺激力度或收紧,而这对新兴市场国家又会有所冲击。总体来看,2021年依然是脆弱复苏的一年。中国经济在率先复苏的基础上保持着“稳中求进”的发展态势,货币财政政策都趋向于“正常化”目标而不是强刺激,全年增长预计8.1%,在稳定经济的同时积极调结构和推进高水平对外开放,为后续发展留有政策激励空间。疫情的不确定性、各国复苏进程及政策力度的不一致性导致全球资产市场波动加大。在此背景下,中国A股上市公司2020年的市场创值能力明显下降,但在财政、金融等领域多项救助措施实施的背景下,A股上市公司的净资产收益率(ROE)下降幅度有所 <<
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    Abstract

    From 2020 to the first half of 2021,the spread of COVID-19 has become a key factor affecting the global economy,and the ability to spread and control COVID-19 has become a key variable affecting the international economic recovery. It is the difference in the ability of novel coronavirus to infect and control the disease that leads to the inconsistency of global economic recovery and the difficulty of global policy coordination. In the face of the epidemic,China’s economy began a full recovery in the second half of 2020,while developed economies began to recover in the second quarter of 2021 based on vaccine control. However,emerging markets such as Brazil,India and Russia are still plagued by the epidemic and have not yet recovered. Inconsistent recoveries have led to divergent policies and growth targets. Strong stimulus policies in advanced economies and a slow recovery on the supply side have led to rapid commodity price rises and signs of inflation. It is expected that policies in developed economies will appropriately reduce stimulus or tighten in the fourth quarter of 2021,which will have an impact on emerging market countries. 2021 will still be a year of fragile recovery. Both monetary and fiscal policies tend to “normalize” rather than strong stimulus. The annual growth is expected to be 8.1%. While stabilizing the economy,China actively adjusts the structure and promotes high-level opening up,leaving room for policy incentives for subsequent development. The uncertainty of the epidemic,the inconsistency of national recovery processes and policy efforts have led to increased volatility in global asset markets. In this context,the market value creation ability of China’s A-share listed companies in 2020 has significantly decreased,but under the financial and financial rescue measures,the decline rate of return on equity (ROE) of A-share listed companies has decreased. Under the impact of the epidemic,the research and development efforts of A-share listed companies are still generally increasing,and traditional industries are also actively seeking new ways of development. Further in the first half of 2021 as the economic recovery,significantly improve the listed company profit,innovation and development along the national strategy of “binary”,“double carbon strategy” and “digital transformation” and other major direction,high-end chip,AI,autonomous software,network security,green energy,biological medicine and become the main direction in the field of supply chain security. Positive progress has been made in the pilot reform of the capital market registration system,making it more inclusive and adaptable. In the future,we should continue to adhere to the direction of marketization,rule of law and internationalization,deepen the reform of the capital market,steadily promote the whole-market registration system,strengthen financial supervision,actively promote ESG investment and the development of green finance,and constantly improve the ability of the capital market to serve the real economy.

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    作者简介
    杨耀武:杨耀武,中国社会科学院经济研究所博士,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
    张平:张平,中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心主任、中国社会科学院大学经济学院教授、博士生导师。
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