您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库! 登录|注册
您现在所在的位置:首页
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 专题子库
庆祝改革开放40周年
    从1978年到2018年,中国改革开放已历经40个年头,40年的成功实... 详情>>
更多>> 皮书作者
蔡 昉
    1956年9月生于北京。现任中国社会科学院副院长、党组成员,曾任中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,博士生导师,研... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学士、硕士、博士学位... 详情>>

    在全面深化改革中创新社会治理——2013~2014年中国社会形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2013年,中国进一步踏入改革深水区。总体而言,调结构、稳增长、促发展的一系列政策初见成效,经济增速企稳,就业形势呈现出总需求略大于总供给的积极趋势,城镇化水平有望超过54%。义务教育进一步均衡发展,大学招生向中西部地区倾斜。政府职能加速转变,社会组织将在未来大幅增长。社会保险参保人数趋于上升。但发展的不平衡、不可持续问题仍然存在。从2013年前三季度统计数据看,城乡居民收入增速放缓。食品价格与住房价格的攀升,影响了普通民众的消费生活,延缓了农民工的市民化进程。未来很长一个历史时期,都会出现大学毕业生就业难的问题——结构性失业现象会长期存在。在老龄化影响下,养老问题会越来越突出。由环境恶化引起的群体性事件快速增加,某些地区发生的暴力恐怖事件影响了全社会的安全感。所以,对2014年这个改革年来说,继续把控好宏观调控的力度、进度和方向,在保障和改善民生上稳定做出努力,具有非常重大的现实意义。“教育梦”和“就业梦”是每一个中国人的主要梦想。要在推进户籍制度改革中要统筹相关政策。对于“单独”放开二胎政策的实施,需要防止人口规模反弹。要在保护农民利益的前提下稳妥推进农村土地与住宅制度改革。而最关键的任务,则是大力创新社会治理方式,促进社会的和谐稳定。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    "In 2013, China has stepped into a crucial stage of social and economic reform. Facing complex and volatile international situation, coupled with complicated social problems at the domestic level, the third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) approved ""the Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensive Reform Plan of the CPC Central Committee"", which will stimulate social and economic development. In general, a series of policies have been implemented in order to facilitate structural adjustment, stabilize the momentum of development, and promote economic growth. Currently, the rate of economic growth has been stabilized; at the same time, labor demand exceeds labor supply, which has significant impact on the employment situation. With growing number of migrant workers in metropolitan areas, the urbanization rate will reach 54%. Government enforced policies to promote equality in education, and the percentage of college enrollment in central and western China has been increased. Reforms of the transformation of government function arrive at a new stage, accompanied by a period of dramatic increase of social organizations in the near future. The number of participants in social insurance programs keeps rising, with expanding social insurance coverage. However, problems of imbalanced and unsustainable development still exist. Statistics from the first three quarter show that the rate of income increase for urban and rural residents is decelerating, and the rate of increase for per capita disposable income of urban residents is lower than GDP growth rate. Under this background, food price and housing price keep rising, which has negative impact on consumption of average people. At the same time, soaring price show down of necessities show down the process of eitigenization of peasant workers. Due to the adjustment of industrial structure, for a long petimeriod in the future, new graduates will probably face large scale structural unemployment. As an aging society, old-age support will become an important social issue in the future. Disputes over pollution have been multiplied because of the deterioration of environment. And in some regions, civil disturbance has weakened sense of security. Therefore, in 2014, government should adjust the scope of macro-control, promote steady growth, and implement a comprehensive package plan oriented in the right towards correct direction. At the same time, more effort should be made to protect and improve people's well-being, which has a predominant impact on the effect of the current reform plan. It is very important to provide equal opportunity for every Chinese to fulfill the ""Education Dream"" and ""Employment Dream"". With prudent planning in the area of the hukou registration regulations, reform should be carried out in a balanced and comprehensive manner. With the new adjustment to the one-child policy, the new policy allows couples to have two children if one spouse is an only child. However, population structure and scale should be consistent with sustainable development. Reforms over rural land and housing regulation should move forward with full consideration of the protection of peasants' rights and interests. The overarching reform target should be set over the foundation of innovation of social governance, which is essential in maintaining social harmony and social stability." <<
    >>
    作者简介
    李培林:男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会学研究》主编。第十八届中国共产党中央委员会候补委员, 社会政法学部学部委员。 主要研究领域:发展社会学、组织社会学、工业社会学。 主要代表作:《村落的终结》(专著)、《社会结构转型——中国经济体制改革的社会学分析》(专著)、《和谐社会十讲》(专著)、《另一只看不见的手——社会结构转型》(专著)、《转型中的中国企业:国有企业组织创新论》(合著)、《新社会结构的生长点》(合著)、《社会冲突与阶级意识——当代中国社会矛盾问题研究》(合著)、《国有企业社会成本分析》(合著)、《中国社会发展报告》(主编)、《中国新时期阶级阶层报告》(主编)等。
    张翼:男,甘肃静宁人,生于1964年。原在兰州商学院任教,1995年考入中国社会科学院社会学系应用社会学专业攻读博士学位,专业方向:工业社会学。1998年毕业后留中国社会科学院人口学所,供职于社会发展室。现为中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长,研究员。主要研究领域:工业社会学、人口社会学、家庭社会学、社会流动、社会融合等。主要代表作:《就业与制度变迁:下岗职工与农民工——两个特殊群体的就业》(专著)、《国有企业的家族化》(专著)、《中国人社会地位的获得:阶级继承与代内流动》(论文)、《中国城市社会阶层冲突意识研究》(论文)、《当前中国中产阶层的政治态度》(论文)、《农民工进城落户意愿与中国近期城镇化道路的选择》(论文)、《中国婚姻家庭的变化态势》(论文)。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告