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    2014年深圳市房地产市场解析与2015年展望

    摘要

    2014年深圳房地产市场先抑后扬,岁末强势“翘尾”,房地产开发投资额攀升,再创新高。住宅价格稳中有升,新房成交量高位回落,伴随宽松政策二手住宅第四季度成交量激增。新建写字楼空置明显上升,二手写字楼均价小幅波动,租金显著震荡。新建商业用房空置依旧明显,二手商业用房均价震荡下行,租金小幅回落。全年土地总体供给量再度回升,居住用地出让仅一宗,商服用地供求大幅增长,不同类型用地单价涨跌各异。展望2015年,深圳经济增速虽有所放缓但后劲十足,房地产支撑效果不容小觑;新常态下房地产宽松政策效果叠加,楼市回暖将进一步显现;地铁、通道建设有效提振外围区域经济发展,前海蛇口自贸区、北站商务中心区再次掀起新的区域热点;农村集体用地入市开始启动,入市用途将拓宽至安居和养老。 <<
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    Abstract

    Shenzhen’s real estate market began to thrive both the price and volume after a period of downturn in 2014 and had a boom at the end of the year. Real estate development and investment have climbed to a new height. As to the residential market,the price raised steadily while the volume decreased from a high point. The volume increased sharply with partly real estate policy deregulation in the fourth quarter. As to office building,the vacancy rate increased markedly,and the average price fluctuated within a narrow range,while the rent shocked significantly. As to commercial building,the vacancy rate was still in the same level as before. The average price declined obviously,the rent fell slightly. The overall annual land supply rebound phenomenon occurs again,only one case of residential land,while the supply and demand of commercial land has a sharp growth,and land price of different types differed from each other.

    Looking ahead to 2015,Shenzhen’s economic growth is slowing down,but prospects will still bright,real estate support will play a vital role in economic growth. Under the new phenomenon,the effects of the different kind of real estate police will overlay,the housing market rebound phenomenon will be further revealed. Construction of the subway and peripheral channels can effectively promote regional economic development in the suburban,Similarly,the former sea Shekou FTA and North Station CBD become the focus of Shenzhen. Rural collective land will be allowed to be used by private market,and the market will be widened to the field of housing and pension.

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    作者简介
    宋博通:第一作者:宋博通,建筑学科博士后,深圳大学基建部主任,深圳大学房地产研究中心常务副主任,副教授,主要研究住房政策、城市经济与房地产市场。
    黄子嵩:第二作者:黄子嵩,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
    仵世友:第二作者:仵世友,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
    李亚宁:第二作者:李亚宁,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
    王勇:第二作者:王勇,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
    徐超:第二作者:徐超,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
    张旦辉:第二作者:张旦辉,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
    张慧:第二作者:张慧,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生,排名不分先后。
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