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蔡 昉
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李培林
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    转折中的日本与中日关系——日本形势回顾与展望(2014~2015)

    摘要

    2014年,安倍内阁加紧落实“安保三支箭”,将“军事复国”路线付诸实践。在战败投降69周年之际,日本重新成为“能够进行战争的国家”,彻底告别了二战后以“吉田路线”为标志的战略思路与发展路径,踏上追求“全面正常化”之路。安倍“战略性外交”全面铺开,但与邻国关系的改善未见实质性进展。中日达成四点原则共识,领导人简短会见,改善关系迎来契机,但基础仍待巩固。2015年,安倍内阁将致力于整备安保法制、修订完成《日美防卫合作指针》,并积极为今后修宪制造舆论环境。但是“安倍路线”缺乏民意认同,面临国内制约。中日关系处于历史转型期,步入深度合作与深度博弈并行的常态,在双周期因素的作用下呈现两面性、阶段性发展特点。

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    Abstract

    In 2014,the Abe administration accelerates the implementation of “the three arrows” of security policy,attempting to put the concept of “reviving the military capability of the country” into practice. On the 69th anniversary of the end of WWII,Japan becomes “a country which can engage in war” by abandoning the strategic thought and the path of development based on Yoshida doctrine in the post-war period and walking on the track of “the overall normalization”. Abe’s “strategic diplomacy” is conducted in full swing,however,Japanese relations with neighboring countries have not improved substantially. There is a sign of improvement for Sino-Japanese relations with the meeting of Chinese and Japanese leaders on APEC summit and their agreement of four fundamental principles concerning bilateral relations. However,the foundation of Sino-Japanese relations is still fragile and need to be further consolidated. In 2015,the Abe administration will focus on revision of law concerning security and defense and Japan-U.S. Defense Guideline,generating public opinion for the next step of constitutional amendment,which,meanwhile,has not gained sufficient social support and faced with constraints from both at home and abroad. The Sino-Japanese relations,in the process of historical transformation,are in the stage of “the new normal” which is characterized with the parallel of in-depth cooperation and in-depth gaming,and reflects the double sides and the stage development influenced by the double-period factor.

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    作者简介
    李薇:暂无简介
    杨伯江:杨伯江,法学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所副所长、研究员,研究方向为日本问题、东北亚地区安全。
    楊伯江:暂无简介
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