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    1956年9月生于北京。现任中国社会科学院副院长、党组成员,曾任中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,博士生导师,研... 详情>>
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    2016年我国宏观经济形势和政策取向

    摘要

    2015年国民经济总体保持平稳发展,经济运行保持在合理区间,新的增长动力正在逐步形成,微观主体活力有所释放。然而,经济运行中的结构性问题仍然突出,如产业结构矛盾凸显,房地产市场仍处于调整期,地方政府融资能力下降,企业经营困难等。同时,2016年全球经济政治格局的大调整也将给我国经济发展带来复杂影响。但是,我国仍具备保持中高速增长的条件,预计2016年国内生产总值将增长6.5%左右,实际经济增速略低于7%左右的潜在增长率。破解当前经济困难主要从以下两个方面入手:一是以经济结构调整为主线,兼顾经济增长和防范金融风险;二是继续注重“稳增长、调结构、防风险”的平衡。

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    Abstract

    In 2015,China’s economy is maintaining a steady development,new growth momentum is gradually taking shape,and the vitality of the main body of microeconomics has been released. However,the structural problems in the economic operation still stand out. The contradictions in industrial structure have become critical,the real estate market is still in an adjustment period,the financing capacity of local governments has declined,and enterprises face numerous operational difficulties. Meanwhile,the large restructuring of the global economic and political landscape will also affect China’s economic development. However,China is still in a condition to maintain high-speed growth. The growth of the GDP in 2016 is expected to be around 6.5%,and the actual economic growth rate is slightly lower than the potential growth rate of about 7%. To overcome the current economic difficulties,the government should make its priority to adjust the economic structure,taking into account economic growth and prevention of financial risks,and focus on the balance of “steady growth,structural adjustment,anti-risk”.

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    作者简介
    祝宝良:国家信息中心经济预测部。
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