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    2015~2016年世界经济形势分析与展望

    摘要

    2015年世界经济增速放缓,反映出全球复苏之路崎岖艰辛。大宗商品价格继续下降,全球物价水平增速下行,部分经济体面临通缩压力。整体就业状况有所改善,但各经济体间存在差异。国际贸易负增长,国际直接投资有所恢复,跨国并购活跃,区域合作取得进展。金融市场波动剧烈,关联性明显。全球总债务水平处于历史高位,其不可持续性提升了风险等级。2016年世界经济将受到一系列不确定和趋势性因素的影响,包括发达经济体需求管理政策效果能否延续,美联储加息的时间、速率和力度如何,全球超高债务水平对金融稳定可能带来多大威胁,新兴市场和发展中经济体连续五年经济增速下滑的势头能否得到有效遏制,许多经济体内外经济政策和结构改革受到既得利益集团不断掣肘的危害程度,等等。此外,地缘政治变化和自然灾变亦会对世界经济运行与绩效带来负面干扰。预计2016年按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率约为3.0%。如果爆发金融危机且具有较强的传染性,按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率将约为2.0%。

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    Abstract

    The global economic growth slowed in 2015,reflecting the bumpy global economic recovery. The continually falling prices of commodities and declining global inflation have increased the deflationary pressure for some economies. The overall employment situation improved moderately,but it varied in different economies. The international trade registered negative growth,but international direct investment picked up moderately. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions have been active and headway has been made in regional cooperation. The financial markets fluctuated drastically and became more interconnected. Global debts remained at historically high levels and their unsustainability brought more risks. The global economic situation is subject to influences of a series of uncertain trends,including whether the effect of the demand management policies in the developed economies can continue,the timing,frequency and strength of the expected interest rate hike by the US Fed,the level of threat posed by excessive global debts to financial stability,whether the trend of growth of the emerging and developing economies declining for five consecutive years can stop and the seriousness of setbacks suffered by policymakers in many countries conducting economic and structural reforms as they constantly face the challenge of interest groups. Moreover,geopolitical changes and natural disasters may also bring negative effects on global economic activities and performance. It is expected that the PPP-based GDP growth of the world economy is 3.0% in 2016 and,if any financial crisis broken out and were highly contagious,it may drop to about 2.0%.

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    作者简介
    张宇燕:张宇燕,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、所长。
    姚枝仲:姚枝仲,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、副所长。
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