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    中国城乡居民二孩生育意愿与生育计划调查报告

    摘要

    本文利用2015年“中国社会状况综合调查”中生育意愿和生育计划的数据,并对比2011年相关调查结果,对我国育龄人群生育意愿与生育计划进行分析。研究发现,目前中国育龄人群终身生育水平在更替水平以下,并随着年龄的降低逐渐下降,育龄人群终身平均生育孩子数将在1.7个以内。育龄人群的理想子女数在2个以下,生育意愿随着年龄的降低呈现下降的趋势。意愿生育水平城乡差距稳定,但随着年龄的降低差距缩小;低收入群体生育意愿相对较高。从区域差异看,东北地区的意愿生育水平明显低于其他地区,平均理想子女数仅为1.76个。从育龄人群生育计划看,40岁及以上育龄人群再生育的可能性非常小。40岁及以上育龄人群肯定不生下一个孩子的比例接近88%。在打算生育二孩的一孩育龄人群中,五年内计划二孩生育的比例不超过70%。

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    Abstract

    Based on the 2015 Chinese Social Survey,the paper analyzes and measures the willingness of childbearing and childbearing plan among childbearing-age population,and compares the result with the 2011 survey. The paper finds that the life-long childbearing level among childbearing-age population is below the replacement level. And with the decrease of age,the average number of children among childbearing-age population is within 1.7. The ideal number of children is below 2,and the willingness of childbearing has decreased with age. The willingness of childbearing difference between urban and rural residents has been stabilized,and the gap is narrowing with the decrease of age. Low income group has higher willingness of childbearing,and regarding regional difference,the north-eastern area has the lowest willingness of childbearing,with the ideal number of children as 1.76. Regarding age difference,people more than 40 have very low probability of childbearing. And more than 88% among this age group said they did not have willingness of childbearing. Among people who have willingness of childbearing of second child,less than 70% said they would give birth within five years.

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    作者简介
    张丽萍:张丽萍,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副研究员。
    王广州:王广州,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所研究员。
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