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    2015年深圳市房地产市场解析与2016年展望

    摘要

    2015年深圳住宅市场备受关注,量价涨幅全国居前,年中年尾成交激增,新房、二手房价格呈现倒挂。深圳的高房价使换房者卖房收入颇丰,提升了其购买改善性住房的能力,改善型户型成交比例大幅提高。莞、惠、中临深片区住宅成交大幅放量,价格增幅不一。商业用房成交量增加,租金有所下滑。写字楼物业量价齐升,租金小幅上涨。全年居住用地供应依旧不足,城市更新为主要供应渠道。展望2016年,预期深圳经济基本面保持良好,对房地产市场发展具有支撑作用。在国家实行系列楼市利好政策背景下,深圳出台调控政策对冲过热趋势,有助于楼市健康发展。未来新地铁开通、大型公建项目选址将进一步带动片区价格上行。从长远看,部分存量豪宅的稀缺品质或再助推价格补涨。深圳客到周边城市的购房意愿对政策和成本较为敏感,购房规模将取决于临深片区的比较优势。 <<
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    Abstract

    Shenzhen housing market in 2015 received much concern,the increment rates of both volume and price ranked top in the country,transaction volume increased sharply in the middle and at the end of the year,price inversion appeared in new and second-hand housing. The high price of Shenzhen real estate enabled those who wanted to change their houses to gain a lot through selling the old ones,and therefore promoting their capability of improvement-housing purchase,as a result the transaction rate grew rapidly. Housing regions near Shenzhen in Dongguan,Huizhou and Zhongshan went through heavy transaction volume,with uneven increment rate in prices. Transaction volume in commercial housing raised while the rent dropped,transaction volume and price of office buildings increased and the rent went up slightly. Residential land was still in short supply and urban renewal was the main channel.

    In 2016,Shenzhen economic will maintain a rather good condition as the support of real estate market development. Under the background of good policy in real estate market,Shenzhen introduces regulatory policies to cool down the heated trend and promote healthy development of real estate market. In the future,newly opened subway and site selection of large public construction projects will push the regional price to further increase. In the long term,the scarcity of some stock luxury real estate might lead to the further increase in prices. The purchase willingness for Shenzhen citizens to buy houses in cities around is quite sensitive to relative policy and cost,and the scale of purchase will depend on the comparative advantage in areas near Shenzhen.

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    作者简介
    宋博通:宋博通,建筑学科博士后,深圳大学基建部主任,深圳大学房地产研究中心常务副主任,副教授;主要研究领域为住房政策、城市经济与房地产市场。
    古祺:古祺,深圳市前海中证城市管理发展有限公司高级研究员。
    梁德情:梁德情,深圳大学基建部科员。
    宋晶晶:宋晶晶,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    赵洁:赵洁,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    程思斯:程思斯,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
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