您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库! 登录|注册
您现在所在的位置:首页
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 专题子库
社会救助
    以中国专项救助8+1模式为主线,整合国内外社会救助主题研究成... 详情>>
更多>> 皮书作者
蔡 昉
    1956年9月生于北京。现任中国社会科学院副院长、党组成员,曾任中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,博士生导师,研... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学士、硕士、博士学位... 详情>>

    中国周边安全形势评估报告(2014~2015)

    摘要

    中国周边地区的安全形势与结构正在经历重要的历史性调整。整体来看,中国周边安全形势总体趋稳,但安全关系和安全结构依然复杂多变,突发性事件仍难避免,风险升级的可能性依然存在。在安全形势的调整与发展中,最重要的特点是中国与周边国家的关系出现了新的磨合与互动,中国塑造安全环境的主动性和能动性显著增强。展望2015年中国周边安全形势的发展,有三大趋势值得密切关注:中国同周边主要大国关系总体向好的趋势有望延续;中国周边的安全热点问题,特别是“两海”问题,将朝着大局趋稳的方向发展,但个别国家如菲律宾等的挑衅行为短期内不会改变;恐怖主义威胁和互联网安全等非传统安全问题仍将处在高风险期,需要各方加强协调与合作,形成治理合力。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    The situations and structure of security in China’s neighborhood are going through important historical adjustments. Generally speaking,the overall stability is being maintained in China’s neighborhood,but the security relations and structure are still complicated and on a process of fluid changes. Therefore,it is difficult to avoid unpredictable and disruptive events and there still exists a possibility of risk escalation. The most important characteristic of the current adjustments and development of the security situations is the new adaptations and interactions occurring in China’s relations with its neighboring countries and the apparent strengthening of China’s initiative and activeness to shape its security environment. Furthermore,three trends deserve close attentions when taking a prospect over the development of the security situations in China’s neighborhood:(1) It is likely to sustain the trend of the overall improvement of China’s relations with major powers in its neighborhood. (2) The hot security issues related to China’s neighborhood,particularly the issues of “the two seas” (the South and East China Seas),will develop in the direction of “stabilizing the overall situation”. However,some individual countries,such as the Philippines,will not change its provocative measures in the short term. (3) The non-traditional security issues,such as the issues related to terrorism and internet security,will remain in a period of high risk,so it is necessary to enhance multilateral coordination and cooperation.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    张蕴岭:张蕴岭,中国社会科学院学部委员、国际研究学部主任、地区安全研究中心主任。
    任晶晶:任晶晶,博士,中国社会科学院当代中国研究所副研究员、地区安全研究中心特约研究员。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告