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    中国周边安全形势评估报告(2015~2016)

    摘要

    2015年中国的周边安全形势可以概括为:大国博弈烈度增强,但总体关系格局基本稳定;热点问题突出,但仍具有可控性。在中国周边安全环境的塑造中,新型大国关系的构建居于十分重要的地位,是中国在周边地区实施创造性维稳、开拓性进取战略的关键环节。在中国周边安全环境的演变中,南海问题热度上升,朝鲜半岛冲突风险增大,钓鱼岛及东海风险犹存。不同地缘板块的交织搅动,给中国周边安全环境的构建平添了新的不确定因素。2016年将是一个多事之年。一些矛盾冲突点将会继续发热,大国博弈的联发效应会继续扩散。从中国周边安全环境塑造的角度来说,最重要的是妥善管控分歧,维护周边局势的基本稳定,避免局部冲击整体,让和平发展的大环境得以维持和延续。

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    Abstract

    The security situation in China’s periphery during the year 2015 can be summarized into one sentence:The gaming between big powers became more intensive,but the overall power structure was stable,with the issues of hot spots were more outstanding but still controllable. In the shaping of China’s peripheral security environment,the construction for a new type of major power relationship was placed on a very important position and regarded as a key link for China to implement a strategy of creating an innovative stability and taking pioneering initiatives. Of all the changes of security situation around China,the issues related to South China Sea became even more tense,the probability of conflicts in the Korean Peninsula was increased,and the risks in the Diaoyu Islands and East China Sea were still existing. The year 2016 will be an eventful year because the tensions of some confrontational hot spots will continue and the chain effects of big powers’ gaming will be spread. The most important missions for China to safeguard its peripheral security are to manage and control disagreements properly,maintain an overall stability in its neighboring countries,and avoid an impact to the whole situation brought by some local or partial disruptions,so that a macro environment for peaceful development can be preserved and sustained.

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    作者简介
    张蕴岭:张蕴岭,研究员,中国社会科学院学部委员、国际研究学部主任、地区安全研究中心主任。
    任晶晶:任晶晶,博士,中国社会科学院当代中国研究所副研究员,中国社会科学院地区安全研究中心副秘书长。
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