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    2016年深圳房地产市场现状及2017年展望

    摘要

    2016年,深圳房地产开发投资及占固定资产比重再创新高。住宅方面,因3月和10月两轮调控影响,一线城市中深圳新房价格指数领先回调;价格走势上,新房略涨二手房微调,新房再度反超二手房;成交量走势上,新房和二手房都较上年锐减,二手房缩量更甚;千万价位新房成交套数占所有成交新房比例继续上升。商业用房方面,新房供过于求,二手房均价和租金先升后降。写字楼方面,新房同样供过于求,二手房均价升但租金降。临深片区住宅价格方面,新房与深圳联动不尽相同,价格补涨较普遍。人才住房方面,制度建设和机构设置多管齐下,房源筹建渠道呈多元化趋势。土地市场方面,全年居住用地供销几近翻番、竞拍热度不减,旧改供地占比逐年增加。展望2017年,深圳住房政策将以调控为主基调,房价以“稳”为主,从促进住宅市场良性发展角度,尚需侧重增加住房供给。在人才住房方面,新设住房保障机构强力推进,人才住房房源存量有望快速增加。商务公寓因不受限购限贷政策影响,对住宅替代效应将有所体现。城市更新事权下放,助推旧改高效实施。随着城际轨道对接和通道建设开展,临深片区房价与深圳联动将更趋显著。 <<
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    Abstract

    Shenzhen’s real estate development investment and the proportion of fixed assets both have reached to a new height in 2016. As to the residential market,due to two rounds of regulation in March and October,Shenzhen’s new home price index led the first in first-tier cities. The price of new house rosed while the second-hand housing adjusted slightly. The price of the new housing has been more than the second-hand housing again. Compared to 2015 the volume decreased both of the new housing and the second-hand housing,but the second-hand housing’s shrinkage was more than the new housing while still higher than the average of six years. The tens of millions of residential transactions accounted for the proportion continued to rise. The volume accounting continued to rise for ten million price of residential. As to commercial building,the new housing was supply exceeding demand while the prices of second-hand housing and rents rose at first and then dropped. As to office building,the supply of new office building has reached to a new height but been still supply exceeding demand,while the price of second-hand office building rose steadily and the rent fall in the end of 2016. As to the housing prices in the areas around Shenzhen,the linkage between new house and that in Shenzhen has been significant but the effect has been varyed,and the price compensatory growth has been also more common. As to the talent housing,the system construction and institutional arrangements multi-pronged,which contributed to the growth of total amount of real estate. As to land market,the supply and demand for residential land almost doubled in 2016,and the auction heat has been not reduced. The old city reconstruction of commodity housing supply area increased every year.

    Looking ahead to 2017,Shenzhen’s real estate policy will take regulation as the principal keynote and housing price will be stable. From the perspective of ensuring the housing market to develop healthily,the government needs to focus on increasing the supply of new housing. In talent housing respect,new housing security agencies is expected to increase the stock of talent housing rapidly. Business apartment is not limited to the purchase of credit limit policy,so its substitution effect on residence will be reflected. Decentralization of urban renewal authority will boost the efficient implementation of city renewal. With the development of intercity rail docking and channel construction,the housing prices in the areas around Shenzhen and that in Shenzhen will be more closely linked.

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    作者简介
    宋博通:宋博通,建筑学博士后,深圳大学基建部主任,深圳大学房地产研究中心常务副主任、副教授,研究方向为住房政策、城市经济与房地产市场。
    古祺:古祺,深圳市前海中证城市管理发展有限公司高级研究员。
    黄子嵩:暂无简介
    赵洁:赵洁,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    宋晶晶:宋晶晶,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    曾琴:曾琴,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    程勇:程勇,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
    杨玉竹:杨玉竹,深圳大学土木工程学院硕士研究生。
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