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    2019~2020年全球邮轮产业发展研究:市场规模下行压力巨大,邮轮经济面临...

    摘要

    作为环境高度敏感型的邮轮行业,易受到政治、经济、环境、外交等诸多因素的影响,具有先天的环境脆弱性。邮轮属于大型聚集型旅游产品和人群聚集的海上载体,具有人员集中度高、数量大、来源广泛、流动性强、封闭性强等显著特点。新冠肺炎疫情重创邮轮经济,中国邮轮市场首当其冲,2020年1月29日起航次全部取消。2020年,随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球的不断蔓延,亚太、北美、欧洲等三大邮轮市场先后停摆,邮轮疫情成为社会舆论关注的焦点,这次全球停航是200年来邮轮行业在和平时期的首次全线停航。嘉年华集团、皇家加勒比游轮、诺唯真游轮等全球前三大邮轮公司股价下跌近80%,市值蒸发超过500亿美元,邮轮港也暂时失去了邮轮靠泊服务收入,意大利芬坎蒂尼集团、云顶香港旗下德国MV Werften造船集团三家邮轮建造船厂也暂时停工。因此,此次疫情给全球邮轮产业发展带来巨大的经济损失,是邮轮产业发展史上影响时间最长、涉及面最广、损失最惨重的一次危机,对邮轮产业未来的发展影响也较为深远。受到疫情的影响,各大邮轮公司收入受到巨大影响,多家邮轮公司面临严峻的资金压力,通过发行股票和公司债的方式筹集资金。这次疫情将会推动邮轮公共卫生安全风险管控体系发生深刻变革,推动邮轮港口出入境卫生检疫设施设备全面升级,推动各大邮轮研发建造厂、邮轮运营公司全面提升应对公共卫生突发事件的能力。

    中国是全球最大的邮轮新兴市场和全球第二大邮轮客源国,经历了十年的黄金增长期和两年的市场调整期,正处于迈向高质量发展的关键时期。中国成功防控新冠肺炎疫情不仅为全世界抗击疫情树立了标杆,也让邮轮业界看到了邮轮业重振的希望,加快推动全球邮轮市场格局的调整。全球邮轮业界也普遍认为,这次疫情对邮轮行业的影响是阶段性的,全球邮轮旅游市场长期向好的发展趋势不会改变,依然具有良好发展前景和市场潜力。

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    Abstract

    As an environment sensitive cruise industry,it is vulnerable to many factors such as politics,economy,environment,diplomacy and so on. Cruise ship is a large-scale aggregation of tourism products and sea carrier of crowd aggregation,with high concentration of personnel,large number,wide source,strong mobility,strong closure and so on. Novel coronavirus pneumonia has hit the cruise economy seriously. China’s cruise market is the first to be affected,and the number of flights has been cancelled since January 29,2020. In 2020,with novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic spreading worldwide,three major cruise markets,including Asia Pacific,North America and Europe,were suspended. The cruise epidemic has become the focus of public opinion. The global suspension is the first full line suspension in 200 years. The share prices of the world’s top three cruise companies,such as carnival group,Royal Caribbean Cruises and novozyme cruises,fell by nearly 80% and their market value evaporated by more than 50 billion US dollars. The cruise port also temporarily lost the revenue from cruise berthing services. Three cruise ship building shipyards of Italy’s fincantini group and German MV werften shipbuilding group of Yunding Hong Kong were also temporarily suspended. Therefore,novel coronavirus pneumonia has caused huge economic losses to the development of cruise industry worldwide. The new crown pneumonia epidemic is the most influential and most dangerous crisis in the history of cruise industry development,which has far-reaching impact on the future development of cruise industry. Due to the impact of the epidemic,the income of major cruise companies has been greatly affected. Many cruise companies are facing severe financial pressure and raise funds by issuing stocks and corporate bonds. The epidemic will promote profound changes in the cruise public health and safety risk control system,promote the comprehensive upgrading of cruise port entry-exit health quarantine facilities and equipment,and promote the major cruise R & D and construction plants and cruise operating companies to comprehensively improve the ability of cruise ships to cope with public health emergencies.

    As the world’s largest emerging cruise market and the world’s second largest cruise source country,China has experienced a decade of golden growth and two years of market adjustment,and is in a critical period of high-quality development. China’s successful prevention novel coronavirus pneumonia has set a benchmark for the world to fight against the epidemic,and also has made the global cruise industry see the hope of reviving the cruise industry and accelerating the adjustment of the global cruise market structure. The global cruise industry also generally believes that the impact of the epidemic on the cruise industry is phased,which will not change the long-term development trend of the global cruise tourism market,and still has good development prospects and market potential.

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    作者简介
    汪泓:汪泓,博士,中欧国际工商学院院长,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:邮轮经济。
    史健勇:史健勇,博士,上海工程技术大学党委副书记,教授,研究方向:邮轮经济。
    梅俊青:梅俊青,硕士,上海吴淞口投资(集团)有限公司,研究方向:邮轮经济。
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