您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库! 登录|注册
您现在所在的位置:首页
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 专题子库
数字经济
    以《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》为指导,聚焦推进产业数字化... 详情>>
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学院原副... 详情>>

    2021~2022年全球能源局势与中国能源发展

    • 作者:陈星星 王炜 黄晓勇出版日期:2022年08月
    • 报告页数:34 页报告大小:1.99MB
    • 报告字数:24302 字所属丛书: 世界能源蓝皮书
    • 所属图书:世界能源发展报告(2022)
    • 浏览人数:    下载次数:

    摘要

    随着新冠肺炎疫苗接种速度加快,经济增长和石油需求强劲反弹,俄乌冲突等地缘政治因素叠加影响,2021年,世界原油价格多期波动,天然气区域市场结构性供需失衡,全球燃煤发电量创新高,可再生能源发电量增幅有所下降,多种因素推动全球电力需求增长6%以上。2022年,“碳达峰”“碳中和”进一步减少石油开发投资,俄乌冲突推升全球天然气价格,煤炭需求和可再生能源装机容量纪录再创新高,全球电力需求增速放缓。2021年,中国煤炭供需矛盾持续加剧,“保供稳价”促进煤价回归合理区间,但液化天然气(LNG)进口价格话语权仍然偏弱,可再生能源发电量稳步增长,电力生产绿色低碳化趋势显著。未来,中国新增进口管道气(PNG)主要来自俄罗斯,2030年前,中国煤电装机容量预计达峰,电力信息化市场机遇重现。建议中国形成“气气竞争”的天然气市场,发挥煤炭的“兜底”保障作用,推动电力系统、电网结构和能源系统演进、创新和多元迭代,构建“绿色+数字”能源交易中心,推动“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标顺利达成。 <<
    >>

    Abstract

    With the acceleration of vaccination against COVID-19,the strong rebound in economic growth and oil demand,the superimposed influence of geopolitical factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the world crude oil price fluctuated for many periods in 2021. As the structural imbalance between supply and demand in the regional natural gas market,the global coal-fired power generation hit a new high,the growth rate of renewable energy decreased,and various factors promoted the growth of global power demand by more than 6%. In 2022,the zero carbon campaign further reduced investment in oil development,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed up the global natural gas price,the coal demand and renewable energy installed capacity reached a new record,and the growth rate of global power demand slowed down. In 2021,the contradiction between supply and demand of coal in China continued to increase,and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices promoted the return of coal prices to a reasonable range,but the LNG import price was still low. Renewable energy power generation increased steadily,and the trend of green and low-carbon power production was significant. In the future,China’s imported pipeline gas will mainly come from Russia. China’s coal power installation is expected to peak before 2030,and the opportunity of power informatization market reappears. It is suggested that China form a gas competition market,promote the evolution,innovation and multiple iteration of power system,power grid structure and energy system,build a digital energy trading center,and promote the smooth achievement of the zero carbon goal.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    陈星星:陈星星,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所副编审。
    王炜:王炜,中国社会科学院大学科研处处长,中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心秘书长。
    黄晓勇:黄晓勇,教授,中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心主任。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告