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    2017年加拿大政党政局

    摘要

    小特鲁多领导的自由党政府自2015年带着“真正的变革”之心上台执政以来,在经历了与民众一段长长的蜜月期后,支持率开始下降。同时反对党的攻击也开始加大火力。小特鲁多政府在许多问题上遭到攻击。对内的问题主要包括一直没有办法平衡的政府财政赤字,漏洞百出的税收政策,备受质疑的总理和内阁成员的个人操守和表现等;对外则主要是进退失据的对外政策,无法妥善处理与中美两个大国之间的关系,北美自贸协定被重谈,中加自贸协定遭搁浅,这都令加拿大在贸易方面受到损失。然而,自由党政府在即将来临的2019年联邦大选中依然有很大的胜算。原因在于,一方面,即使没有翻天覆地的变革,但总体来看,小特鲁多的成绩单还不算太差,经济有所恢复,失业率也大大降低,对外政策总体上也符合国内民众的偏好;另一方面,其对手保守党人才匮乏,无法推出强有力的候选人,民众对他们也相当陌生。所以,相对于不熟悉也不信任的保守党来说,民众可能更愿意在2019年给小特鲁多再一次兑现承诺和实现抱负的机会。不过,虽然联邦大选仍有获胜机会,但是在省选中自由党的劣势却有些明显。继上一次失去了BC省之后,2018年6月又失去了至关重要的安大略省。同时,自由党在魁北克省的支持率也在下降,并受到保守党以及新崛起的魁盟的冲击。这种情况会导致未来即便总理大选胜出,自由党联邦政府也将面临如何处理与各省关系的严峻考验,并且接下来的省选也可能会直接影响联邦大选的结果。

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    Abstract

    The Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau,took office in 2015 with the intention to bring “Real Change” to Canada. In 2018,after a long “honeymoon” period with the Canadians,emerging problems are drawing heavy criticism from the Opposition,and impairing the Liberal government’s support rate. Domestic issues include long-standing government deficit,an imperfect tax policy and questionable ethics of the Prime Minister and his cabinet. When it comes to the foreign front,dilemmas in developing its foreign relations,the NAFTA renegotiation,the inability to reach a FTA with China,and the failure to handle the relationship with China and the United States are impairing Canada’s foreign trade. However,despite existing problems,the Liberal party still has a good chance of winning the 2019 election. On one hand,though Justin Trudeau’s reforms were less than spectacular,his time in office had been fruitful,with national economic recovery,improved employment rate and a foreign policy that caters to the preferences of the Canadian public. On the other hand,the Conservative party was unable to find a strong candidate familiar to the Canadian public. As a result,instead of opting for the Conservatives whom they neither trust nor know very well,Canadians may choose to give the Liberal government another opportunity to make good on their promises and realize their vision in 2019. Though the Liberal party still stands a chance in winning the federal election,their odds of victory in the provincial elections are looking dim. After the losing British Columbia in an earlier election,they lost Ontario in June 2018. Meanwhile,faced with assaults from both the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois,support for the Liberal party is dropping in Québec. As a result,the Liberals may face challenges in managing the relationships between federal and provincial governments even if they succeed in the federal election,which is heavily influenced by the results of provincial elections.

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    作者简介
    唐小松:唐小松,博士,教授,广东外语外贸大学加拿大研究中心,研究方向为加拿大政党政治。
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