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    2018年中国农业农村经济形势分析及2019年预测

    摘要

    2018年,农业农村经济总体上保持持续发展并出现一些新的形势。农业高质量发展取得成效,农产品质量安全水平和农业综合效益提高,第一产业增加值近6.5万亿元,实际增长3.5%,在GDP中比重稳定下降到7.2%;农业结构调整有效地改善了农产品供求关系,粮食减产0.6%,但总产量仍然接近6.6亿吨,国内产需缺口大的大豆增产4.8%,产量达到1600万吨;猪肉受多种不利因素影响减产0.9%,产量为5404万吨,但牛羊肉和禽肉继续增产。农产品进口增长较快,贸易逆差扩大。农产品生产者价格总体小幅度下跌0.9%,食品消费价格温和上涨1.8%。农民人均可支配收入近1.5万元,实际增长6.6%,城乡居民收入倍差下降到2.69,农村内部居民收入分配状况有所改善,贫困地区农民人均可支配收入突破万元。农民消费结构不断升级,乡村消费持续扩大。农业农村经济对经济社会稳定和发展发挥了重要支撑作用。展望2019年,农业农村经济运行呈现的一些规律性变化将会延续,在国家宏观调控和“三农”政策措施等积极作用下,农业农村经济稳定发展格局仍将保持,粮食等重要农产品继续保持增产,预测2019年第一产业增加值将达到6.7万亿元,实际增长3.5%;粮食总产量将增加到6.7亿吨,猪肉将减产到5200万吨;农产品生产者价格上涨5%以内,食品消费价格上涨4%;农民人均可支配收入将增加到1.6万元,实际增长6.5%,城乡居民收入倍差将下降到2.66。2019年,发展农业特别是粮食生产,保障重要农产品有效供给,实现农民较快增收,有利因素很多,但也面临一些困难和不利因素,需要采取切实措施抓好农业特别是粮食生产。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,China's agriculture and rural economy maintained sustainable development and some new situations emerged.Achievements have been made in the development of high-quality agriculture,and the quality and safety of agricultural products and the overall efficiency of agriculture have been improved.The value-added of the primary industry approached 6.5 trillion Yuan,an increase of 3.5% in real terms compared to the previous year,and its share in GDP steadily dropped to 7.2%.The agricultural structure adjustment has effectively improved the balance of major product supply and demand.The total output of grain production reached 660 million tons,a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous year.The output of soybean reached 16 million tons,an increase of 4.8%.Owing to various unfavorable factors,the output of pig meat was 54.4 million tons,a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous year.The production of beef,mutton and poultry has continued to increase.The agricultural trade deficit expanded while agricultural imports increased rapidly.Agricultural producer price decreased by 0.9%,while food consumer price increased by 1.8%.The per capita disposable income of rural residents approached 15 thousand Yuan,an increase of 6.6% in real terms.The ratio of per capita disposable income between urban and rural residents was 2.69,and the income distribution structure of different rural resident groups improved.Especially,the per capita disposable income of rural residents in poor areas has exceeded 10 thousand Yuan.The farmers' consumption structure has been upgraded and rural consumption has continued to expand.The agricultural and rural development has played a positive role in economic development and social stability.In 2019,some regular trends and changes in the operation of agricultural and rural economy will continue.It is projected that the value-added of the primary industry will reach 6.7 trillion Yuan,with an actual increase of 3.5% in real terms,and the total output of grain production and pig meat production will possibly reach 670 million tons and 52 million tons,respectively.The per capita disposable income of rural residents is expected to reach 16 thousand Yuan in the coming year.

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    作者简介
    总报告课题组:本报告执笔人:李国祥(博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员、农产品市场与贸易研究室主任,博士生导师)。审定:魏后凯。
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