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    2018年种植业经济形势及2019年展望

    摘要

    基于“藏粮于地”的粮食安全思路和三大粮食作物的库存压力,2018年中国谷物播种面积适度调减,豆类、棉花和糖料作物播种面积增加。从粮食安全角度来看,虽然粮食播种面积减少了,但单产提高,所以全年粮食产量同比略有下降,却依然处于高位。贸易方面,2018年主要粮食作物中除玉米外,小麦、大米、大麦、高粱、木薯、大豆进口量同比减少,大米出口创下新高;而经济作物中,棉花、食用植物油、食糖进口量均有所增加。价格方面,2018年,除玉米价格有所涨幅外,小麦、稻谷、大豆、油料、食糖等农产品价格均出现下跌。土地成本和人工成本的增加依然是种植业生产成本不断增长的主要原因。预测2019年,稻谷和小麦的产量不会大幅下降,优质优价体系会逐步建立;2019年玉米有可能局部地区小幅增产,大幅增产的可能性不大。2019年大豆和油料作物种植面积会有所增加,增产可能性较大;2019年糖料作物增产可能性较大。2019年,稻谷价格上涨的可能性不大,小麦和大豆价格下调可能性较大,玉米和棉花价格上浮的可能性增大,2019年国内食糖价格会触底反弹。受国内外价差扩大、国内生产成本增加等因素影响,种植业进口压力依然较大。

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    Abstract

    Based on the food security idea of “storing grain on the ground” and the storage pressure of three major grain crops,the sown area of cereals in China was moderately reduced in 2018,while the sown area of soybean,cotton and sugar crops increased.From the perspective of food security,although the sown area of grain has decreased,the per unit yield has increased,so the annual grain output has slightly decreased compared to the previous year,and it remains at a high level.In 2018,except for corn,the imports of wheat,rice,barley,sorghum,cassava and soybean crops decreased,and rice exports hit a new high.Among the cash crops,the imports of cotton,edible vegetable oil and sugar increased during the same period.In 2018,except for the corn price,the price of wheat,rice,soybean,oil and sugar crops have decreased.The main reason for the increasing cost of production is attributable to the increase in land cost and human cost.In 2019,the output of rice and wheat is not likely to decrease in a substantial manner,the high quality and high price system will be established.The corn production will possibly increase slightly in some places,but the probability of a large increase can be hardly achieved.The production areas of soybean and oil crops will possibly expand with a high probability of production increase.The sugar production will possibly increase.In 2019,the increase in rice prices seems hardly to happen,while the probability of a decrease in wheat and soybean prices is high.Corn and cotton prices are more likely to rise,and sugar prices will be able to bottom out.Affected by a widening price gap at home and abroad and the increase in domestic production cost,the import pressure of the crops industry is still relatively high.

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    作者简介
    张瑞娟:张瑞娟,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,研究方向为农村发展理论与政策
    白描:白描,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员,研究方向为农村发展与政策。
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