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    2018年林业经济形势及2019年展望

    摘要

    本文分析了2018年中国林业投资和造林、林产品生产、国际贸易以及林产品市场状况,并对2019年林业经济发展趋势进行了展望。2018年,中国林业投入规模和造林面积均保持增长的趋势,林业总产值达到7.33万亿元,第三产业比重提高4个百分点。国内木材产量小幅增长,人造板、竹材和非木质林产品生产出现下滑。林产品贸易突破1600亿美元,木质林产品占到进出口贸易总额的3/4。木质林产品进口以木浆、原木和锯材等产品为主;出口以木质家具为主,原木、锯材等产品出口下降。国内林产品市场有所萎缩,林业各类产品市场发展继续分化。展望2019年,造林面积仍将保持较高水平,林业产业投资比重有望继续提高;林业第三产业比重延续上升趋势,木材产量将小幅增长;林产品进出口贸易增长趋缓,林产品出口形势严峻;国内林产品市场趋于稳定,木制品价格上涨动力不足。

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    Abstract

    This chapter analyzes China's forestry investment and afforestation,forest products production,international trade and forest products market in 2018,and provides an outlook of the development trend of forestry economy in 2019.In 2018,China's forestry investment scale and afforested area both increased,and forestry total output reached 7.33 trillion Yuan.The proportion of forestry output to the tertiary industry increased by 4 percentage points.The domestic timber production increased slightly,and the production of wood-based panels,bamboo and non-wood forest products declined.Besides,forest products trade has broken through 160 billion U.S dollars,and wood forest products accounted for 3/4 of the total import and export trade.In particular,the imports of wood forest products mainly consisted of wood pulp,logs and sawn timber,while the exports were mainly in the form of wooden furniture.Exports of logs,sawn timber and other products were declining.The domestic forest products market has shrunk,and the market development of various forestry products continued to differentiate.In 2019,China's afforestation area will remain at a high level,and the proportion of forestry industry investment is expected to continue to increase.The proportion of the tertiary industry in forestry will continue to increase,while the timber output will increase slightly.The growth of import and export trade of forest products will be slowing down,and the situation of export of forest products is severe.The domestic forest products market tends to be stable,and the increase in wood products' price will probably be insufficient.

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    作者简介
    张海鹏:张海鹏,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员,主要研究领域包括城乡关系、资源与环境经济、林业经济理论与政策
    蒋宏飞:蒋宏飞,博士,中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为林产品国际贸易。
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