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    2018年渔业经济形势及2019年展望

    摘要

    2018年,渔业坚持生态优先、绿色发展,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,渔业产值和产量稳定增长,渔民人均纯收入快速增加至近2万元,水产养殖量突破5000万吨,水产品市场交易量额双升,质量安全水平较高。同时,受中美贸易摩擦、国际同构竞争、水产品竞争力下降等影响,贸易顺差继续收窄至74.6亿美元。基于“生态优先、绿色发展”的政策基础,预期2019年,渔业经济政策重点是水产养殖转型升级、加强资源与生态修复及渔业高质量发展。水产品产量为6600万吨左右,其中养殖水产品继续增加,近海捕捞再次减量,远洋产量微增;水产品消费进一步升级,市场交易量额稳定,价格稳中略升;渔业开放度扩大,贸易顺差持续收窄。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the development of fishery economy adhered to the principles of ecological priority and green development.With the supply-side structural reform as the main line,the fishery economy developed in an all-around way.The aquatic production and output increased steadily.The income growth of fishermen was high.Aquaculture output increased to more than 50 million tons from 49 million tons last year.Both the market exchange volume and sum increased steadily,and the quality and safety level of aquatic products was relatively high.At the same time,growth in imports was higher than exports because of Sino-US trade friction,international isomorphic competition as well as the decreased competitiveness of aquatic products.So the trade surplus continued to decrease to 7.46 billion US Dollars.Based on the former policy of “ecological priority and green development”,the fishery economic orientation inclines to optimize the industrial structure,enhance the supply capacity of aquatic products,promote the transformation and upgrading of aquaculture,strengthen resources and ecological restoration,adjust international trade and cooperation strategies,and achieve high-quality development. In 2019,the output of aquatic products will possibly reach 66 million tons,the output of aquaculture is likely to continue to increase,and the output of inshore fishing will possibly drop again.It is projected that prices will rise slightly and the trade surplus will continue to decline.

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    作者简介
    刘子飞:刘子飞,博士,中国水产科学研究院副研究员,主要研究领域为渔业经济与战略、资源与环境经济。
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