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    “违约常态化”下的债券市场发展机遇与挑战——2018年至2019年上半年中国...

    摘要

    2018年债券市场违约逐步呈现常态化:全年债券违约率较2017年呈现翻倍,首现AAA级别发行人债券违约,并且违约行业、所在区域集中度下降;违约范围从小型企业蔓延至大中型企业和上市公司;城投信仰亦被打破,地方政府负债监管日益趋严,融资平台相关产品频频违约;债市风险流动性蔓延至中小银行,包商银行风险暴露,被银保监会全面接管。2019年上半年债券违约节奏较2018年有所放缓,但是违约数量仍不少。2019年又将是企业非金融信用债到期的高峰,后期上市公司债市违约风险仍要引起高度关注。从债市利率走势来看,我国债券市场在经历了震荡的2016年,2017年债市整体延续熊市后,2018年受经济增速回落、中美贸易摩擦升温、货币政策持稳健中性且边际宽松等因素影响,全年债券市场出现震荡反弹,债券收益率大幅下行。与债券市场表现形成鲜明对比的是,2018年股票市场表现极差,股市整体下行带动转债指数回落。当前,金融供给侧改革进入关键时期,要继续坚持以供给侧结构性改革为主线,把握好去杠杆的节奏与力度,有序推进市场化进程,将债券违约风险控制在可控范围内,避免爆发系统性金融风险或者是区域性的债务风险。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the defaults of bond market have become normal gradually:comparing with 2017,the annual bond default rate has doubled in 2018;AAA level credit bond defaulted,and the industry and regional concentration of bong default decreased;the default range spread from small to medium-sized Enterprises and even listed companies;beliefs of City Investment Credit Debt got broken;local government debt regulation has become stricter than ever before,and financing platform related products have defaulted frequently;liquidity risk of bond market has spread to small and medium-sized banks,and the risk exposure of Baoshang Bank has made it fully taken over by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. The default rate of bond defaults in the first half of 2019 has slowed down compared with last year,but the number of defaults is still quite large. In 2019,it will met the peak of the maturity of non-financial credit bonds. The default risk in the bond market of listed companies still needs to be highly concerned.As for the trend of bond market interest rates,China’s bond market has experienced generally a shock in 2016 and a bear market in 2017,then rebounded and bond yields fell sharply in 2018 affected by factors such as the economic growth rate declined,Sino-US trade frictions warmed up,and monetary policy remained stable and marginal easing in 2018. In contrast to the performance of the bond market,the stock market performed extremely poorly in 2018,and it led to an obvious decline in the convertible bond index. At present,the reform of the financial supply side has entered a critical period. We must continue to adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line,grasp the rhythm and intensity of de-leveraging,promote the marketization process in an orderly manner,and control the bond default risk within the controllable range to avoid outbreaks of systemic financial risk or regional debt risk.

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    作者简介
    黄胤英:黄胤英,中国社会科学院经济研究所博士后,中国农业银行总行董事会办公室高级政策研究员,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
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