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    中国税收形势分析及展望

    摘要

    2019年税收收入,一季度累计增速为7.9%,高于经济增速1.5个百分点;二季度累计增速为3.0%,较一季度略有回落,但已呈低于经济增速运行态势,低3.3个百分点;三季度累计增速为0.6%,低于经济增速5.4个百分点。主要税种收入增速除个人所得税较上年大幅度下降外,其余大部分税种收入增速均小幅提高。重点税源大省,除北京增速较高外,广东、上海、江苏均出现负增长,其他多数省份较上年增速回落,直接影响到全国税收收入呈现较低增长态势。2019年中国宏观经济形势处于低速运行态势,加上实行减税降费宏观政策,四季度税收收入增速继续回落,全年税收收入增速会远远低于经济增速,2020年税收收入增速低于经济增速成为大概率事件。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,tax revenue increased 7.9% in the first quarter,and its growth rate was 1.5% points higher than the economic growth rate. The cumulative growth rate in the second quarter was 3.0%,slightly down from the first quarter,and also lower than the economic growth rate of 3.3% points. The third quarters’ cumulative growth rate was0.6%,which was lower than the economic growth rate of 5.4% points. In addition to the significant decline in personal income tax,the growth rate of the main tax revenues increased slightly. The growth rate of most other tax types increased slightly. Except the higher growth rate of Beijing,Guangdong,Shanghai and Jiangsu all experienced negative growth. The growth rate of most other provinces decreased compared with the previous year,which directly affected the growth rate of national tax revenues. In 2019,China’s macroeconomic situation is at a low speed,and with the implementation of the macro policy of tax reduction and fee reduction,the tax revenue will continue to fall in the fourth quarter. The annual tax revenue growth rate will be far lower than the economic growth rate,and the tax revenue growth rate in 2020. Below economic growth has become a high probability event.

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    作者简介
    付广军:付广军,国家税务总局税收科学研究所研究员、民建中央财政金融委员会副主任。
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