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    2019年中国农业农村经济形势分析及2020年展望预测

    摘要

    2019年,中国第一产业增加值达7万亿元,比上年实际增长3.1%;乡村人口降至55162万人,比上年减少1239万人,农村贫困人口551万人,继续较大幅度减少,比上年减少1109万人,农民工总量29077万人,比上年增加241万人;粮食总产量创历史新高,达到66384万吨,比上年增加595万吨;农产品进口近1500亿美元,比上年增加130多亿美元;除猪牛羊肉外的多数农产品供给充裕,粮食等价格运行平稳;农民人均可支配收入16021元,比上年增加1404元,继续保持较快增长,城乡居民人均可支配收入倍差为2.64,比上年缩小0.05,城乡居民收入相对差距明显缩小。但是,生猪生产出现了较大幅度滑坡,全年出栏生猪54419万头,比上年减少近1.5亿头,猪肉产量明显减产至4255万吨,比上年减少1149万吨,导致畜肉等市场供求关系偏紧;食品价格较大幅度上涨,同比上涨9.2%,给居民消费价格调控目标带来压力。展望2020年,受新冠肺炎疫情等影响,虽然中国农业发展难度和农民增收徘徊等风险加大,农产品进出口贸易不确定性增多,但是国家采取的政策措施将发挥极其重要的积极作用,估计农业生产能够克服不利影响,粮食生产将实现基本稳定目标,总产量将达到6.7亿吨,猪肉产量恢复到4800万吨,农民人均可支配收入增加到1.7万元,贫困地区农民收入增长较快,脱贫攻坚任务全面完成。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,added value of primary industry reached¥7 trillion,an actual growth of 3.1% compared to the previous year;rural population decreased to 551.62 million,a decrease of 12.39 million compared to the previous year;rural poor population decreased to 5.51 million,a decrease of 11.09 million compared to the previous year;rural migrant workers increased to 290.77 million,an increase of 2.41 million compared to the previous year;grain production reached 663.84 million tons,an increases of 5.95 million tons compared to the previous year;the imports of agricultural products approached to $ 150 billion,an increase of $ 13 billion compared to the previous year;the supply of most agricultural products was sufficient except for that of pork,beef and mutton;the prices of grain was stable. The per capita disposable income of rural residents reached ¥16021,an increase of ¥1404 compared to the previous year;the ratio of urban resident disposable income to rural resident disposable income deceased to 2.64,a decrease of 0.05 compared to the previous year,the income gap between urban and rural residents narrowed. Meanwhile,the production of pig declined significantly,the supply of pork decreased,the amount of pig slaughter decreased to 544.19 million,a decrease of 150 million heads;the output of pork decreased to 42.55 million tons,a decrease of 11.49 million tons compared to the previous year,which led to the tight supply of livestock meat. The consumer price of food increased by 9.4% compared to the previous year,which brought challenges to regulation of consumer price. In 2020,affected by the COVID-19 epidemic,the difficulties faced by agriculture development and risk of income stagnation of rural residents will increase,the uncertainty of international trade of agricultural products will also increase. However,the policy adopted by the government will play an extremely important and positive role. The agriculture and rural economy are expected to overcome the adverse effects of the COVID-19 epidemic. It is predicted that the output of grain may reach 670 million tons,the output of pork may reach 48 million tons,the annual per capita disposable income of rural residents would reach 17000 Yuan,the per capita disposable income of rural residents in poor areas would grow at higher rate,and China will end absolute poverty successfully.

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    作者简介
    总报告课题组:本报告执笔人:李国祥(博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员、食物经济研究室主任、博士生导师)。审定:魏后凯。
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