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    2019年我国新能源汽车市场及趋势分析

    摘要

    2019年我国新能源汽车销量达120.6万辆,占全球市场份额的53%,产销规模自2015年起连续五年居世界首位。但与传统燃油车相比,新能源汽车市场规模仍较小,2019年新能源汽车市场渗透率为4.7%,未来市场增长空间广阔;同时2019年我国新能源汽车产销出现首次下滑,同比分别下降2.3%和4.0%,产业成熟度不高、市场驱动乏力、企业韧性不足等问题日益凸显。从车型结构来看,新能源乘用车呈现中大型化发展趋势、客车集中在8~12(含)米区间、货车则以轻型货车为主。分动力类型来看,纯电动车型仍占据我国新能源汽车市场主导地位,插电式混合动力车型集中在乘用车领域,燃料电池车型以商用车为主并逐步加快应用。从区域分布来看,新能源汽车主销区域正由限购城市向非限购地区及二、三、四线城市下沉。预计疫情短期将对新能源汽车市场造成波动,但随着企业车型产品的持续投放及多项政策出台,公共领域电动化进程有望提速,新能源汽车消费有望进一步增长,长期来看,产业持续向好趋势未变。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,the total volume of NEV production and sales reached 1.206 million,making up 53% of the global total and having ranked the first in the world for 5 years in a row since 2015. Compared with conventional ICE vehicle,however,NEV market is still small since the NEV market penetration rate was only 4.7% in 2019 yet with broad growth potential;meanwhile in 2019 NEV production and sales in China met the first decline,falling 2.3% and 4.0% respectively. NEV industry also faces increasingly obvious problems as low industrial maturity,inadequate market drive,weak corporate resilience etc. In terms of vehicle structure,passenger NEVs are approaching medium and large size while most NEV buses are of the length between 8m and 12m and NEV trucks are predominantly light-duty trucks. In terms of powertrain,pure electric vehicle still occupies the dominant role in the China NEV market whereas most PHEVs are applied in passenger vehicle area and fuel cell vehicles are mainly commercial vehicles and speeding up the application. In terms of region,the major NEV marketing areas are spreading from purchase restricted cities to non-purchase restricted areas and the 2nd,3rd and 4th line cities. It is expected that COVID-19 will cause fluctuation in the NEV market,but NEV consumption will further grow and vehicle electrification in public field will speed up as the OEMs continue release more and more products and more policies are issued. In the long-term,the constantly benign industrial tendency is not changed.

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    作者简介
    刘可歆:刘可歆,硕士,中汽中心中国汽车战略与政策研究中心。
    刘万祥:刘万祥,硕士,中汽中心中国汽车战略与政策研究中心。
    方海峰:方海峰,博士,高级工程师,中汽中心首席专家、中国汽车战略与政策研究中心室主任。
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