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    2020~2025年中国经济形势及财政收支预测

    • 作者:王宏利出版日期:2020年09月
    • 报告页数:30 页报告大小:1.82MB
    • 报告字数:21603 字所属丛书:财政蓝皮书
    • 所属图书:中国财政政策报告(2020)
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    摘要

    本文对2020年及“十四五”经济社会形势和财政收支进行了预测。2020年经济形势预测结果显示,受国内疫情影响及国外疫情冲击,2020年GDP增速可能在2.3%~3.0%区间,房地产投资增速同比微降,固定资产投资增速上升,消费总体增速回落,在补偿性消费影响下增速前低后高,短期贸易摩擦等外部不确定性仍在,CPI走势整体前高后低,春节期间CPI或破4触5,基建提振对冲疫情打压,PPI走势前低后高。长期来看,“十四五”期间GDP增速总体将处于5%~6%区间,经济结构进一步优化。对财政收入的预测结果显示,2020年一般公共预算收入前低后高,全年增速或与2019年持平,“十四五”期间增速可能进一步放缓。分税种看,2020年增值税收入增速仍处低位,消费税收入增速或不及2019年,企业所得税收入增速可能趋缓,个人所得税收入增速降幅收窄,资源税收入增速将逐步回落。对财政支出的预测表明,2020年财政支出增速或较2019年放缓,整个“十四五”期间财政支出仍面临较大压力。优化支出结构、注重资金使用效率将更为重要。2020年卫生健康、社会保障、科技等仍将保持较快增速,财政支出结构将在“十四五”期间进一步优化。

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    Abstract

    This article forecasts the economic situation,fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2020 and within the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan Period. Forecast results show that if the impact of the epidemic is limited to the first quarter,GDP growth in 2020 may remain in the range of 2.3%-3.0%. Growth rate of real estate investment will decrease slightly,but the growth rate of fixed asset investment will increase in 2020. Besides,the overall growth rate of consumption will fall slightly. And the growth rate will be low before getting higher under the influence of compensatory consumption. Short-term trade frictions have eased although uncertainty remains. The overall trend of CPI is dropping low before rebound and CPI may be higher than 4% during the Spring Festival,getting close to 5%. In the long run,the overall GDP growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be in the 5%-6% range,and the economic structure will be further optimized.

    The forecast results of fiscal revenue show that the general public budget revenue growth rate in 2020 will be low before reaching a later high,and the annual growth rate may be the same as in 2019. The growth rate of fiscal revenue during the 14th Five-Year Plan period may slow down further. In terms of different taxes,the growth rate of VAT income in 2020 may still be low. Consumption tax revenue may not grow as fast as in 2019. At the same time,the growth rate of corporate income tax revenue may slow down,and the decline in personal income tax revenue growth may narrow. In addition,the growth rate of resource tax revenue will gradually decline. The forecast of fiscal expenditure shows that the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in 2020 may be slower than that in 2019,and fiscal expenditure will still face greater pressure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. It will be more important to optimize the structure of expenditures and focus on the use of funds. In terms of subjects,medical,social security,science technology and other fields will maintain rapid growth in 2020,and the structure of fiscal expenditure will be further optimized during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

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    作者简介
    王宏利:王宏利,经济学博士,中国财政科学研究院研究员,研究方向为宏观经济与财税理论。
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