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    2021年中国经济展望和政策建议

    • 作者:祝宝良出版日期:2021年01月
    • 报告页数:10 页报告大小:1.2MB
    • 报告字数:9052 字所属丛书:经济蓝皮书
    • 所属图书:2021年中国经济形势分析与预测
    • 浏览人数:    下载次数:

    摘要

    2020年,面对新冠肺炎疫情的巨大冲击和复杂严峻的国内外经济发展环境,中国科学统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展,实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,大力深化改革、扩大开放,扎实做好“六稳”工作,全面落实“六保”任务,国民经济呈现稳定恢复态势,全年经济预计增长2.1%左右。考虑到基数原因,2021年,中国经济预计增长8%左右,把2020年和2021年合起来看,实际经济增速仍低于潜在经济增速,失业率仍然较高,企业经营仍然面临困难,出现宏观数据好、微观感受差的现象。我们既要关注宏观经济,也要关注微观经济;既要注重经济增长,也要注重就业和民生;既要看同比增速,也要看环比增速;既要增强经济发展的动力和活力,又要防范和化解经济风险。要继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,保持宏观调控政策的连续性和有效性,继续深化改革扩大开放,促进国民经济恢复平稳健康发展。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,facing the huge shock of the COVID-19 and complicated severe domestic and international environment,China has coordinated epidemic prevention and economy-society development,implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy,vigorously deepened reform and opening up,done a solid job in the work of “six stability”,and fully implemented the tasks of “six guarantees”. The national economy has shown a steady recovery trend,and the annual economic growth rate is expected to increase by about 2%. Taking into account the base factors,China’s economic growth rate is expected to increase by about 8% in 2021. Taking 2020 and 2021 together,the actual economic growth rate is still lower than the potential economic growth rate,the unemployment rate is still high,enterprises are still in difficulties in business operation,and there are good macro data and poor micro perception. We should pay attention to both macro economy and micro economy,focus on economic growth and employment and people’s livelihood,look at both year-on-year growth and month-on-month growth,need to increase the driving force and vitality of economic development,and at the same time guard against and defuse economic risks. We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy,maintain the continuity and effectiveness of macro-control policies,continue to deepen reforms and expand opening up,and promote the recovery of stable and healthy development of the national economy.

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    作者简介
    祝宝良:祝宝良,国家信息中心首席经济师、研究员,主要研究方向:数量经济。
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