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    2021年中国消费市场形势分析与2022年展望

    • 作者:王微 王念出版日期:2021年12月
    • 报告页数:19 页报告大小:1.53MB
    • 报告字数:14173 字所属丛书: 经济蓝皮书
    • 所属图书:2022年中国经济形势分析与预测
    • 浏览人数:    下载次数:

    摘要

    2021年消费市场经历了国内疫情和极端天气以及国际环境变化等冲击和考验,全面确立了复苏走势,消费重回经济增长第一动力地位,展现出强大韧性。当前,消费创新升级的内生动能依旧强劲,在供给升级、渠道重组、市场重构中加快孕育新机。也要看到,重点大宗商品消费不振、企业经营困难导致社会集团消费下降、服务消费未全面纳入统计导致预期低估、外来消费持续中断无法回补等因素增加了短期消费增速下行压力。展望未来,消费发展机遇和风险并存。综合判断,我国宏观经济仍将保持稳健增长,经济循环更加通畅,应对各类风险挑战的能力不断增强,预计2021年第四季度社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.5%左右,全年增长12.1%左右。2022年社会消费品零售总额将实现6.5%~7.1%增速,消费的“压舱石”作用进一步巩固。 <<
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    Abstract

    In 2021,though experienced the impact and test of domestic epidemic,extreme weather and international environmental change,the consumer market fully established the recovery trend,and consumption returned to be the first driving force of economic growth,showing strong resilience. At present,the endogenous driving force of consumption innovation and upgrading is still strong,and the breeding of new opportunities are being accelerated in supply upgrading,channel restructuring and market reconstruction. It also should be noted that the sluggish consumption of key commodities,the decline of social group consumption caused by business difficulties,the underestimation of expectations caused by the failure to fully integrate service consumption into the statistics,the continuous interruption of external consumption and the inability to make up for it have increased the downward pressure on the growth of short-term consumption. Looking forward to the future,consumption development opportunities and risks coexist. According to comprehensive judgment,as China’s macro-economy will still maintain steady growth,the economic cycle will be smoother,and the ability to cope with various risks and challenges can be continuously enhanced,it’s expected that the total retail sales of social consumer goods might increase by about 2.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021 and about 12.1% in the whole year. In 2022,the total retail sales of social consumer goods may increase by about 6.5% to 7.1%,and the “ballast” of consumption will be further consolidated

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    作者简介
    王微:王微,国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所所长,研究方向为消费、商贸流通。
    王念:王念,国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所,研究方向为消费和流通。
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