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蔡 昉
    1956年9月生于北京。现任中国社会科学院副院长、党组成员,曾任中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,博士生导师,研... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学士、硕士、博士学位... 详情>>

    多点支撑的人口疏解和承接研究——基于北京市四区的比较分析

    摘要

    本研究以北京市为例,沿着“空间—城市—人”递进和“人—(产)业—城市”倒逼的思路,着眼于顺义区、大兴区、昌平区和房山区四个重点人口疏解和承接区域,通过经济承载、资源承载和生态承载三个子系统构建区域综合承载力评价指标体系,采用熵权的TOPSIS模型对四个区域进行整体评价和分子系统评价,得出以下结论。研究结果显示:顺义区、昌平区、大兴区和房山区的综合承载力水平依次递减。其中,顺义区各子系统排名均靠前,经济、资源和生态各方面发展较为均衡;昌平区生态承载力水平突出,而经济和资源层面相对一般;大兴区经济承载力水平最高,而资源和生态层面相对较差;房山区资源承载力水平突出,而经济和生态层面比较弱。最后结合实证研究,从发展产业、激发潜力和承接人口三个维度提出相应的政策建议。

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    Abstract

    This study took Beijing as an example,progressing along the “space-city-people” and “people-industries-city” to focus on Shunyi District,Daxing District,Changping District and Fangshan District.,which were the four key areastounder take the transfer,and aiming to construct an evaluation index system of regional comprehensive carrying capacity from the perpectives of economy,recource and ecology subsystem,Based on entropy-weight TOPSIS model,the comprehensive carrying capacity of the four districts and the innercarrying capacity of three subsystems were evaluated.The following conclusions were drawn:The comprehensive carrying capacity of Shunyi District,Changping District,Daxing District and Fangshan District gradually decreased.Among them,all subsystems of Shunyi District are ranked in the front ranks,and the development of economy,resources and ecology is relatively balanced;the level of ecological carrying capacity of Changping District is outstanding,while the level of economy and resources is relatively general;the level of economic carrying capacity of Daxing District is the strongest,and the resources And the ecological aspect is relatively poor;Fangshan District has an outstanding level of resource carrying capacity,but it is weak in economic and ecological aspects.Finally,according to the empirical study,somerelevant policy recommendations were put forward from three dimensions,which were developing industries,inspiring potential and undertaking population.

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    作者简介
    鄢圣文:鄢圣文,北京市社会科学院管理研究所副研究员,劳动经济学博士,主要研究方向为人力资源战略规划、绩效和薪酬管理、劳动力市场理论与政策
    雷皓铭:雷皓铭,中国人民大学劳动人事学院硕士研究生,主要研究方向为劳动力市场规制、人力资源审计。
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