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蔡 昉
    1956年9月生于北京。现任中国社会科学院副院长、党组成员,曾任中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,博士生导师,研... 详情>>
李培林
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李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学士、硕士、博士学位... 详情>>

    从劳动供给弹性变化理解劳动力市场转变

    摘要

    中国人口结构加快转变,劳动力总量和就业总规模持续减少,劳动供给潜力将取决于劳动参与率和劳动时间,观察劳动供给弹性变化对于理解中国劳动力市场转变具有启示意义。本文利用全国流动人口监测调查数据(2011~2017年),并利用2005年全国1%人口抽样调查微观数据测算,观察劳动供给弹性的趋势性变化及其群体差异。研究表明,新时期以来中国流动人口总体劳动参与弹性呈现明显的下降趋势,2011~2017年流动人口总体劳动参与对于工资水平的边际效应为0.53,边际效应从2005年的1.23下降到2017的0.40;2005年流动人口劳动时间对于工资水平的弹性值达到0.15,2011~2017年时间弹性下降到0.08。劳动供给弹性下降是经济发展进入新阶段的反映,依靠工资增长扩大城镇劳动供给的作用减弱,经济发展需要更加依靠劳动生产率持续提高,宏观经济政策也要顺应这一劳动力市场变化。

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    Abstract

    China’s demographic structure has been changing rapidly. The total amount of labor force and the total scale of employment have continued to decrease. The potential labor supply will depend on both labor participation rate and working time. Observing the change of labor supply elasticity is helpful to understand the transformation of China’s labor market. Using by the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2010-2017),we first estimate individual imputed wage level based on Mincer wage equation,and then measure the labor participation elasticity and working time elasticity of migrants. The micro-data of the national 1% population sampling survey in 2005 were used to measure and observe the trend change of the labor supply elasticity and its differences among groups. The study shows that the overall labor participation elasticity of the migrants in China has shown an obvious downward trend since the new period.From 2011 to 2017,the marginal effect of the total labor participation of the migrants on the wage level was 0.53,and the marginal effect decreased from 1.23 in 2005 to 0.40 in 2017.In 2005,the elasticity of the working hours of the migrants to the wage level reached 0.15,and it dropped to 0.08 in 2011-2017.The decline of elasticity of labor supply is a reflection of the new stage of economic development. Wage growth plays a less and less important role in expanding the supply of urban labor market. Economic development needs to rely more on the continuous improvement of labor productivity. Macroeconomic policies should also adapt to this change in the labor market.

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    作者简介
    程杰:程杰,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所副研究员,研究方向为社会保障与就业。
    朱钰凤:朱钰凤,中国社会科学院-上海市人民政府上海研究院、上海大学硕士研究生。
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