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    中国房地产市场面临的风险及政策建议

    摘要

    本文对当前房地产市场的运行态势进行了概括,认为当前房地产开发投资热情持续高涨,但后续增长乏力;土地市场趋冷进一步拉低市场价格;市场销售增长动力不足,总体将步入下行通道;房地产市场将进一步调整。在市场下行的压力下,一些潜在的风险有可能被激发,如,城市极化带来的房价泡沫风险,棚改退出后中小城市的市场风险隐忧,市场转冷情况下住房空置问题,收缩型城市房地产价格下跌过快的风险,集体土地入市对租赁市场的冲击,土地成交下行带来的地方财政压力等。从维持房地产市场平稳的角度看,政府调控应适度加大热点城市的土地供应,维持地价平稳;重点防范部分三、四线城市房价快速下跌的风险;坚持宏观审慎监管,多渠道完善政策调控手段;避免增量规划,注重存量土地再开发;适时开征住房空置税,提高住房利用率;加强实时监测、预测和预警。

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    Abstract

    This paper summarizes the current operation situation of the real estate market,and holds that the current enthusiasm for investment in real estate development continues to rise,but the follow-up growth is weak. The cooling of the land market further lowers the market price;the lack of motive force for the growth of market sales will lead to the overall downward passage;and the real estate market will be further adjusted. Under the downward pressure of the market,some potential risks may be aroused,such as the risk of price bubbles caused by urban polarization,the hidden danger of market risks in the small and medium-sized cities after the withdrawal of the shed reform,the housing vacancy problem under the market turn cold situation,the risk of the shrinking urban real estate prices falling too fast,and the collective land entering the market to the leasing market. The impact of the market and the local financial pressure brought by the downturn of land transactions. From the point of view of maintaining the stability of the real estate market,government regulation and control should increase the land supply of hot cities to maintain the stability of land prices;focus on preventing the risk of rapid price decline in some third and fourth-tier cities;adhere to macro-prudential supervision,improve policy regulation and control means through multiple channels;avoid incremental planning,and pay attention to the redevelopment of stock land;to levy vacancy tax in time to improve the utilization rate of housing;to strengthen real-time monitoring,forecasting and early warning.

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    作者简介
    王业强:王业强,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所土地经济与不动产研究室主任,研究员。
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