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谢伏瞻
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蔡 昉
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李培林
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    “十四五”时期中国就业形势判断、主要挑战与政策建议

    摘要

    就业是民生之本、稳定之基。就业形势稳定是我国经济发展的一贯特征,是中国经济韧性最直观的反映。“十四五”时期我国劳动力供给侧与需求侧均出现重大变化:一是就业总量矛盾和结构性矛盾持续并存,就业结构性矛盾将成为主要矛盾;二是劳动力市场供需保持基本平衡,劳动力供给相对短缺持续存在;三是人口素质水平全面提升,劳动力市场和就业结构升级的基础条件增强;四是劳动生产率出现行业分化,配置效率来源从三大部门之间转向产业内部升级;五是机器人和人工智能全面影响劳动力市场,岗位结构和技能需求发生深刻变化;六是非标准就业成为普遍现象,用工方式和劳资关系出现重大变革;七是就业“服务化”倾向继续加深,就业创造与生产率提升出现两难矛盾;八是劳动力市场区域不平衡加剧,局部地区将出现就业萧条局面;九是人口流动格局进入新阶段,就业“本地化”与分化现象并存;十是就业韧性将面临持久考验,外部环境不确定性加剧就业风险。实现更高质量和更充分就业是新时代就业工作的总体目标,“十四五”时期就业工作要着力解决不平衡不充分的结构性矛盾。

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    Abstract

    Employment is the foundation of people’s livelihood and stability. One of the consistent feature of economic development in China is stability of employment situation which also reflects the economic resilience. During the period of the 14thfive year plan,great changes have taken place in both the supply side and demand side of China’s labor force. First,the total and structural contradiction of employment would exist simultaneously and the structural one would be the main contradiction. Second,the supply and demand sides of labor market would keep balanced roughly but the relative shortage of supply side would exist during a long period. Third,the quality of people has improved which means the foundation of upgrading labor market and employment structure would be more stable. Fourth,labor productivity has differed in variety of industries and allocation efficiency which was from the movement among the three departments would be occurred in industry internal upgrade. Fifth,robots and AI would influence labor market comprehensively and there would be profound changes both in post structure and demand of skill. Sixth,non-standard employment would be the new normal and employment mode and labor relations would be reformed adequately. Seventh,employment becomes more same as service and there would be selection between employment creation and productivity improvement. Eighth,employment situation would be different in regions and employment depression would be occurred in some ones. Ninth,the progress of population migration would come into a new stage and both trends of working in and out of one’s hometown would be more popular. Finally,faced with uncertain external environment,the level of employment risk would rise and the economic resilience would be threatened. To achieve higher quality and full employment is the overall goal of the employment policies in the new era. During the 14thFive Year Plan period,the employment policies and managements should focus on solving the unbalanced and inadequate structural contradictions.

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    作者简介
    张车伟:张车伟,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,研究员、博士生导师、所长,研究方向为劳动经济学与就业。
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