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蔡 昉
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    内需的源泉:新时期流动人口的消费潜力有多大?

    摘要

    中国经济发展和城镇化进入新阶段,流动人口消费特征正在发生变化。本文使用具有全国代表性的流动人口动态监测数据(2010~2017年)测算进入新时期以来流动人口的消费收入弹性,利用具有全国代表性的城镇住户调查数据估算城镇本地居民的消费收入弹性,并据此模拟估算未来流动人口市民化可以带来的消费潜力。研究表明:新时期以来流动人口总体消费弹性已经达到0.67,呈现显著的上升态势,2017年消费弹性提高到0.72,流动人口总体消费行为呈现“本地化”倾向。较之于城镇本地居民平均消费弹性(0.8左右),流动人口消费弹性仍然相对偏低,流动人口消费潜力仍有提升空间。若流动人口市民化能够实现流动人口与城镇本地居民消费弹性趋同,到2030年流动人口带动消费总量将达到15.8万亿元,相当于当年GDP的9.3%,其中由于流动人口市民化直接带动消费增长约8万亿元,相当于4.7%的GDP。流动人口不仅是城镇劳动供给主体,同样是重要的消费群体。

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    Abstract

    As the economic development and urbanization of China enter a new stage,the consumption demand of migrant population is changing. Using the national dynamic monitoring data of migrant population (2010-2017),this paper observes the characteristics of China’s migrant population income elasticity of consumption in the new era from the household level. Using the national urban household survey data,this paper also estimates the income elasticity of urban residents,and then simulates the potential consumption of citizenization of migrant population. The results show that:Since the new period,the overall consumption elasticity of the migrant population has reached 0.67 with a significant upward trend. In 2017,the consumption elasticity of the migrant population has increased to 0.72,and the overall consumption behavior of the migrant population shows a tendency of “localization”. Compared with the average consumption elasticity of urban residents (about 0.8),the consumption elasticity of the migrant population is still relatively low. The citizenization of migrant population has a strong consumption-driven role. The simulation based on consumption function shows that if consumption elasticity of migrant population is consistent with that of local urban residents,the total consumption driven by migrant population will reach 15.8 trillion yuan by 2030,equivalent to 9.3% of GDP in that year. Among them,the consumption growth directly driven by citizenization of migrant population will reach about 8 trillion yuan,equivalent to 4.7 percent of GDP. The migrant population is not only a source of labor supply for urban economic development,but also an important consumer group.

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    作者简介
    程杰:程杰,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,副研究员,研究方向为社会保障与就业。
    尹熙:尹熙,中国社会科学院研究生院,硕士研究生。
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