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    2019年林业经济状况分析与2020年展望

    摘要

    本文分析了2019年中国林业投资和造林、林业生产、林产品贸易和林产品市场状况,并对2020年林业生产和林产品市场的发展趋势进行了展望。2019年,林业投资规模保持增长趋势,生态建设与保护投资比重进一步提高。全国造林面积超过1亿亩,人工造林面积保持全球第一。林业总产值出现负增长,第三产业份额继续提升。国内木材产量跃上新台阶,林业高质量发展取得新进展。林产品进出口贸易额达1573亿美元,其中木质林产品占比超过70%。木质林产品的进口以木浆、原木和锯材等产品为主;出口以纸制品和木质家具为主,原木、锯材、刨花板、木质家具等产品出口呈下降态势。林产品市场整体上处于萎缩状态,绝大多数产品市场也处于萎缩状态,并继续分化。国内木材价格下跌,但相对平稳。展望2020年,造林面积仍将保持在1亿亩以上,林业第三产业比重进一步提高;林产品进出口贸易增长趋缓,林产品出口形势严峻;国内木制品价格将保持稳定,林业高质量发展须持续发力。

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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the current status of forestry investment and afforestation,forest products production,international trade and forest products market in China in 2019,and provides an outlook of the trend of forestry economy in 2020. In 2019,the scale of forestry investment kept growing,the proportion of investment in ecological construction and conservation was increasing. The area of afforestation exceeded 100 million acres,kept being the largest in the world. The total production value of forestry showed a negative growth,and the portion of the tertiary industry kept increasing. The domestic timber production has been steadily expanding,and considerable progress has been made in high-quality development of the forestry industry. The international trade volume of forest products was 157.3 billion US dollars,of which woody forest products accounted for more than 70%. The imported woody forest products were mainly wood pulp,logs and sawn timber;the exported woody forest products were mainly paper products and wooden furniture,while exports of logs,sawn timber,particleboard and wooden furniture declined. The domestic forest products market was shrinking,and the market development of various forest products continued to differentiate. Domestic timber prices fell but remained relatively stable. Looking to 2020,the area of afforestation will remain over 100 million acres,and the portion of the tertiary industry in forestry will keep increasing;the growth of international trade of forest products will slow down,and the export of forest products is facing severe challenges;the price of domestic forest products will be stable,and the high-quality development of forestry need to be promoted.

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    作者简介
    蒋宏飞:蒋宏飞,博士,中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为林产品国际贸易。
    张海鹏:张海鹏,博士,中国社会科学院研究员,主要研究领域包括城乡关系、资源与环境经济、林业经济理论与政策。
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